Watch Your Language

 

Untitled - Lois Dalby - Chalk on paper

I guess we all know what's meant by labelling, the practice of giving an umbrella-name to a real or imaginary group of people and then assigning others to that group as we meet them. The folly in this is obvious when you think about it: when you assign anyone a label (sexist, leftist, even "Christian") the leap to assuming that that person bears all the characteristics of a stereotype is easily made.

              I was listening to a dialogue between late-night show host Bill Maher and a guest about one of the newest labels: Critical Race Theory (CRT, yes, it even has an acronym), which has been thrown into the leftist-labelled group and seems to mean that racism is taught to have been a critical factor in shaping the America as we find it today. Maher's contention was that we've made real progress on the racist front and the left is, as always, afraid to concede that what we're already doing is moving us toward the desired effect. There were, of course, comments like "we don't want our vulnerable children being made to bear the burden of guilt for a sordid past."

              I'd easily agree, of course, that a good education matches content to the maturity of the student; that's neither a leftist, rightist, nor anarchist belief; that's basic educational theory. The argument about Critical Race Theory in schools is misplaced. If state legislatures make of it a yes or no question, imagine how easily it could result in the continuation of historical revisionism, the sanitized history that we've generally been teaching—in Canada as much as in the USA.

              By the labels being thrown around like rubber bullets these days, I'm a leftist, a progressive. True, I favour tailoring the economy to ensure a living income to every person and family. Some hold this view for purely economic reasons; I hold it—I think—because I was born into a culture that assumed the gospels' demand that we practice compassion and care for the poor was not negotiable.

              And for those of us who like labels, there's another new phrase for your collection: virtue signaling. It's the only reason the lefties make a fuss over racism, sexism, and any other isms: "they're just trying to signal that they're more virtuous than the rest of us," according to Bill Maher.

              If you're into classifying the people you meet, slapping a label on a drawer and stuffing them safely in, at least get the label right. I'm an Anabaptist Christian—social progressive—environmental conservative—introverted … person. Half the time I don't know what the hell I'm talking about—throw that in as well. But then, introduce me to someone who does.

              On second thought, label me George.

             

HOW IS JUSTICE EARNED?

 

Earning Justice©

George G. Epp

The broad, North American culture seems to have settled down to accepting the normality of oppressor/oppressed, victim/victimizer consciousness, seems to me. In feminism, it has the character of a glass ceiling; in colonizing history, it’s about indigenous/settler conflicting interests; in race relations, it’s about majority vs. minority rights and responsibilities; in religion, Christian/Jew/Muslim/Sikh etc. consciousness. Even sexuality and gender have provided occasion for majority/minority, oppressor/oppressed scenarios.

                To me, this observation points toward the need for a new way of viewing victimization in North America. A new way that doesn’t begin and end with an apology and momentary feelings of empathy that pretty much go away when the next work-week begins. Are there possibilities for new approaches, or is being either conquered or conqueror, victimized or victimizer built inescapably into human nature?

                People talk a lot about “playing the victim card,” of the phenomenon of shifting blame for one’s own unsatisfactory life on persons and groups that appear to be living more-than-satisfactory lives. Not to say that there aren’t persons and groups that deliberately victimize others for their own gain, or that there aren’t persons or groups that are targeted for victimization. Far from it. What seems more relevant to this discussion is the remedy for victimization and exploitation, and the clear historical evidence that screaming “I/we, is/are victims of _________ (fill in the blank) appears to have limited utility.

We need just to look at the experience of coal miners in Great Britain after the industrial revolution, men who were basically held in slavery to hard, dangerous work by the threat of starvation. Until they banded together and withdrew their labour, little progress toward de-victimization occurred.  Or we could look to the peasant revolts happening across Europe in the 15^th and 16^th Centuries for an opposite outcome; pitchforks and shovels were no match against the palace guards and armies of the ruling classes. So what do our histories teach us that would be useful in the Americas today?

The loud clamour about being a victim along with finger pointing at the supposed victimizer—often seems, in the end, to be little more than frustratingly futile noise. By Old Testament standards, justice is the foundation on which progress must be based. Justice has very practical and very discrete components; it’s not an abstract concept. What’s required is the insistence on discrete policies and practices that are just.

Do Pride Parades, Black Lives Matter marches, Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women inquiries fall into the category of raising awareness without fostering a direction toward remedies? Oft repeated slogans and declarations of victimizations seem to make little difference in fact, and predictably turn into white noise in the ears of the intended audience. Is the reason for this the fact that actions too often demand the whole enchilada rather than setting goals on discrete components of justice: equality in law, equal pay for equal work, equal access to education, equal access to health care.

There are exceptions, of course. “Defund the Police” was a more specific, more creative effort than most and resulted in a still-ongoing reassessment of police practice. To me, that suggests that demonstration that is too general leaves neither the victim nor the victimizer with a handle to grasp, even when awareness and empathy are awakened. The Truth and Reconciliation Report, the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples appear to be monumental steps forward in remedying the victimization of Canada’s indigenous peoples, but are they more than documents that are easily given lip-service while the legislating of actual, detailed change is easily postponed … time and again?

So what are some characteristics of actions that actually precipitate change? Recognizing that members of a preferred and privileged demographic have little interest in change, do victim-cultures, individuals and groups need to abandon the accusing strategy and reach for something else? As I’ve already mentioned, most successful campaigns for change historically were guided by victims, not by the victimizing entity. The formation of unions, for instance, has always been anathema to the corporate machine. To this day, large corporations fight tooth and nail to prevent workers organizing; their interest is in the status quo where some glaring similarities exist between the current labour situation and the British coal miners way back when. The right to exploit labour on the wage side continues in the campaigns of the corporate, business sectors to keep the minimum wage as low as possible. Labour exploitation has long been an engine driving the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few. In North America, the attack on unionization has been persistent and largely successful; only 30% of workers in Canada belong to a union that bargains for their wages and working conditions.

Many white, settler-class Canadians have expressed deep disgust with prevalent forms of victimization: indigenous poverty, police discriminatory behaviour, low-wage McJobs, Quebec’s “secular society” laws, etc. But does my sympathy for children growing up in the bad water, bad housing, second-rate education opportunities of many northern reserves do these children any good? If I empathize with Syrian refugees attempting to adjust to Canada and hear that a woman has been fired from a school staff for wearing a hijab, does my empathy get her her job back? How frustrated do I need to get with my inability to effect positive changes before I look for a new way? 

∞

In order to win a game, a soccer team needs to assemble on the playing field and carry out a strategy whereby each player fulfills a distinct role. No games will ever be won if the defense has slept in, the goalie has decided to stay home and watch TV and the centre and right/left wingers are fighting on the bench over who gets to do what.

                Similarly, change is most often driven by movements of same-goal-oriented people … in large numbers, people who may individually have felt helpless, like a person trying to win a soccer game by him/her/themselves. Movements form around leadership, they thrive by organization and goal-directed activity. They give each member a role in their efforts. They don’t take no for an answer. Imagine how things would be different if there existed an All-Black Union, with striking as the way to assert their need for equality rights and practices.

                Although you’d hardly know it now, Saskatchewan used to be a model of social democracy, a province where you could get medical treatment even if your means were limited. The active leaders who turned the tide included J.S. Woodsworth and Tommy Douglas, and the movement they centered was called the Canadian Commonwealth Federation, or CCF. Against fierce opposition, they fought their way into political power and made first Hospitalization Insurance and later broader Medical Insurance happen. This model eventually led to Medicare as we know it across Canada.

Starting a new political party is probably too lofty an aspiration for most of us. At the same time, protest parties’ record of forcing change is not good and they generally don’t last long. What makes more sense is what’s called, “Rational-instrumental social action, actions that are carried out in order to achieve a specific result.” The action Max Weber speaks of centers on one specific objective, like clean water for one reserve, maybe, or a new school for one town. It may, of course, include political action, like running pro-objective candidates for town council or tribal council, but everything it does politically is tailored to further one objective at a time.

You’d be right in wondering how, for instance, rational-instrumental social action could formulate a movement against discrimination and prejudice. Can you remember a time when argument changed anyone’s mind about, for instance, racial supremacy? And if tackling the big human, attitudinal issues that underly both victimizer’s and victim’s worldviews doesn’t work, can we hope that rational-instrumental social action will bring us closer? And what would be an example, say, of such an action that would answer our horror over the residential schools issue in a way that would relieve their victims?

I repeat: the impetus for meaningful change seems historically to be driven by the victims. First Nations are demanding the Pope’s apology for the Catholic Church’s role in Residential Schools on the one hand, and the locating of burial sites and the identifying of the children buried around Residential Schools on the other. These two demands can represent the initiation of two rational-instrumental social action projects that need to be sustained with persistent and vigorous effort, such that the body of victims and the culpability of the victimizers are made clear and graphic until these two discrete goals are met.

The danger is, as always, that the two rational-instrumental social actions will degenerate into a fuzzy, general diatribe against white and/or Christian racism, and as I said before, projects to simply change people’s attitudes—even when accompanied by much loud protest—seem always to be futile. That’s why an action needs to be rational—which racism is not—and it must be instrumental, describable and with a measurable outcome. The road to equality and fairness for minorities will likely only be achieved in the accumulation of rational-instrumental social actions. To make these actions persevere and succeed, the victim/minority must find a way to act in unity of purpose; they must, in effect, adopt the union model.

This is one example. The progress of civilization toward what the prophet Isaiah saw as a peaceable kingdom (where the lion and lamb lie down together) and which Jesus pointed toward in the Sermon on the Mount and which Hindus find in the Bhagavad Gita will be earned and won in steps of rational-instrumental social action, seems to me. In a world that more and more reveres independence, social action is an uphill battle. Furthermore, even though the victims are driving an action for change, they find themselves—almost by definition—as the weaker one in the victim/victimizer struggle. The only way to balance this equation is in numbers, in unity and in clarity of purpose.

For those who lament residential schools victimization of indigenous Canadians but are most easily associated with the oppressor culture, getting out of the way is sometimes the best strategy. Facilitating the movement (providing food and drink to protestors, for instance) might be another way. To show solidarity with a cause is best demonstrated with action that proves our words are sincere.

This leaves one question for me: how can I—who am often numbered with the privileged oppressor but who recognizes the injustices others bear—engage in the bringing about of the necessary changes so that a certain case of victimization is mitigated? Ought we churches and social progressives form a league and ourselves begin to emulate the rational-instrumental social actions that would move us closer to justice and fairness? If, for instance, the plight of the people of Gaza were the issue, would our united, clear goals for justice for them sway government to take helpful action? And if we were to agree in this league to strike until such action was taken, would that succeed?

Or should we continue—as now—to send out our thoughts and prayers for them to chew on?

Politics as a word means the social/fiscal arrangements we devise in order to live peaceful, fulfilled lives as citizens. We place our confidence in elected politicians to enact laws and policies that will have this effect. Unfortunately, lawmaking, policy making are tainted by calculations of electability—why consider the basic needs of a minority who represent only 10% of the voters, for instance? This phenomenon dashes any hope of a political party ever forming a cohesive “league for change.” At election time, parties come out with lists of policies geared to resonate with their base and after the election, promises made become negotiable because one eye must remain fixed on the next election.

However we choose to be catalysts for justice, this weakness of democracies should be kept in mind. We can easily be wooed into membership in a party and be caught up in the propaganda, the zero-sum game of winning/losing as if it were all like a football game. Such loyalties to even badly-flawed political forces means that we’re better off setting goals and organizing around particular, specific issues and working hard enough to influence political parties, even if their objective, originally, was simply to get our votes.

Here’s a final thought. What if large numbers of Canadians would join in a voting strike until a reasonable form of proportional representation in parliament was written into law? Promised by Justin Trudeau in the 2015 election, we now know that that promise was never intended to be kept. An election artificially skewed in the Liberals favour by first-past-the-post election rules kept them in power in 2019.

 

 

 

 

 

UFOs are really real

 

ME viewed from space. (I can't do hands!)

I believe in UFOs (unidentified flying objects). I also believe in UCOs (unidentified crawling objects), USOs (unidentified swimming objects) and those other UFOs you sometimes get in greasy-spoon restaurants (unidentifiable frying objects). And from my balcony, I often see UWOs (unidentified walking objects), people (probably) whom I don’t recognize coming to the post office to get their mail … humans, or perhaps aliens in human disguise.

                The UFO phenomenon took a leap many years ago into assuming that if we didn’t know what that thing was in the sky, it had to be extraterrestrial (not of this earth) and then took a further leap to the assumption that if it was flying and was not of this earth, sentient beings that weren’t us must be flying these unidentified things. Obviously, they had to live somewhere and have created their spaceships somewhere and aimed them at earth. The assumption that these “beings” must have sinister intentions has predominated; that they might be looking for love, companionship or new and better recipes for btfspljk didn’t seem to occur to us.

                I could enjoy sitting down with a sentient being from another solar system despite its twelve eyes and wheels-instead-of-legs to compare political systems. Trouble is, I’m with astronomer Chris Hadfield on the realization that the thought is absurd, and here’s one good reason:

The nearest star (sun) to us in our galaxy is Proxima Centauri, which is 40 trillion kilometres away. The fastest speed theoretically that even an electromagnetic current can travel is the speed of light, or 300,000 kilometres per second. For a spaceship to travel from one of Proxima Centauri’s two planets even at that speed—which is most certainly impossible—it wouldn’t reach earth for 4.25 EARTH YEARS. And if it was traveling at the fastest speed that a man-made object has ever traveled in space (360,000 kilometres per hour), that spaceship wouldn’t arrive until 12,749.8 EARTH YEARS had passed. A space vehicle setting out for earth would have to be massive in order to support life upon it for all those years. Generation after generation would have to pass on the journey. Food would have to be produced, their preferred atmosphere stored or manufactured, hospitals and recreation facilities, etc., etc. would have to be part of the project. As it approached our earth so many years after launching, it would likely look more like the moon in size; no one would miss seeing it.

                Anyway, here’s the math; prove me wrong.

 *Cruising Speed of the space probe to Mars                                    40,000 kph[1]

*Or, in kilometres per year                                                                  350,400,000 kpy

*Distance to the nearest star in our galaxy (Proxima Centauri)  40,208,000,000,000 km

*Time required to reach the nearest other “solar system”

     at the Mars probe cruising speed                                                    114,748.8 years

*Highest speed ever obtained by a space ship^[2]                                 360,000 kph[3]

*Or, expressed as kilometers per year                                                3,153,600,000 kpy

*Time required to reach the nearest other solar system                 12,749.8 years

*Speed of

 light                                                                                              1,080,000,000 kph

Time needed for light from Proxima Centauri to reach us            4.25 years

                In the USA, UFO sightings are investigated by the military. The possibility of threat from space works nicely against cutting, and toward increasing, the military budget. I expect that the sighting by a Delta Airlines Pilot over Hudson Bay, Saskatchewan this spring will be followed up by more such stories; shades of Reagan’s and Trump’s “Star Wars” campaigns.

                We know enough about all the planets in our solar system to conclude that life as we know it exists on none of them. Given speeds and distances in space, no “Cinderella planets” like ours exist in reach by any of the standards we know. So what are people seeing? Hard to tell these days:

·         -Earth’s low orbit is crawling with “space junk,” spent communications satellites etc.;

·         -free-floating rocks pass through space and occasionally enter earth’s atmosphere as meteorites;

·         -weather balloons;

·         -the inevitability of pranksters creating crop circles and doctored photos and videos because they can, and because that’s what humans sometimes do when craving attention;

·         -the suggestibility of the human mind that can easily be made to see things that aren’t there;

·         -you name it!  

                Back in the 70s, I experimented with black and white photography; I built a darkroom in our basement. I saw somewhat blurry photos then of saucer-like objects and on a whim, created “photos” in the darkroom that were dead ringers for these “evidences of extra-terrestrial life.” It wasn’t hard.

                We do have threats we might well be afraid of. They’re all earth-made, however. If there is conscious, space-travel-savvy life somewhere out there, we’ll never know it, because the distance to them is exactly the same as the distance from them to us.

Our puny missions to Mars, the moon, Jupiter are the space-travel equivalent of tossing a tennis ball into the neighbour’s yard. Conjecture that if earth should become uninhabitable in future, we could always colonize another planet is as absurd as saying that if food supplies dry up, we’ll just eat rocks.

                 

 

---

[1] NASA

[2] This speed was achieved by the Jupiter probe as it entered that planet’s gravitational field.

[3] NASA

Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust

Autumnal Entropy

I read … and re-read an article, from New Scientist, this morning detailing an experiment showing that the more we demand by way of accuracy in our clocks, the greater the contribution to the entropy of the universe. And I thought, “However would I explain this experiment and its result to anyone with my approximate level of scientific knowledge/ignorance?”

                But here’s a rough go. 

                I think it has to do with order/entropy/chaos, and here’s a clarifying (I hope) example. A builder reaches out into the environment for material that exists in a random, chaotic, unplanned state: wood from trees, asphalt from fossil oils, iron deposited in the earth’s crust, etc. and arranges these into an order we call “a barn.” But once created, the barn slowly begins to return to its chaotic origins: the wood rots, the nails oxidize into a ferrous oxide rust, the shingles give up their resilience to the atmosphere, etc. This process is called entropy, the natural return to chaos, disorder.

                To trace the order/entropy/chaos phenomenon in the human body is more interesting, seems to me. A mother’s body provides food, air, water, energy so that under the guidance of genetics, these elements are ordered into a copy of herself. Birth is a milestone in the ordering; it continues through childhood and adolescence until it reaches the maximum order dictated by genetics. From then on, the body begins the process of entropy until the chaos-making process exceeds the ordering process and organs are unable to perform their intended functions anymore. We call it aging and dying. After death, the body … like an old, abandoned barn … continues to return its ancient elements. In effect, its in death and decay that the energy that created the order is given back to the universe, and the elements we ordered and called “barn,” or “body” are returned to the same universe: oxygen, carbon, and the many assorted minerals that were put together to make of us living beings.

                (Here's an interesting thought: some of the carbon molecules that were used to build your body may have previously been part of the bodies of Socrates, Judas Iscariot or John A. MacDonald.)

                Back to watches and clocks. It makes sense that the more complex and intricate we order anything, the greater the consumption of energy. Since all energy is a gift of the universe (mostly of the sun in our earthly case), and since ordering uses up energy and entropy gives it back, the more we demand in that which we order, the larger the deal with the universe to consume and repay energy. And since energy is required to delay and lengthen the process of entropy, the more of it we borrow from our universe, the greater its speed toward its final decay.

                And, most startlingly, the universe along with everything in it is on a trajectory toward its final chaotic state. To prove this in a lab with a filament of a few nanometres thickness is astounding. 

                Perhaps the writers of Genesis 1-4 had an inkling of the astronomical truth of order having been imposed on chaos, since that is what the Old Testament narratives are basically about, with God being the organizer, the creator of order, and the devil the great “entropist,” the devious chaos-maker.

                But don’t worry if your watch or clock was very expensive because it was engineered and intricately manufactured to be dead-on accurate; you and I will long have been returned to “ashes and dust” before the universe finally "leaves the building.” I myself have worn a cheap Citadel watch for at least twenty years.

You’re welcome, universe. 

 LET’S TALK WATER #4

Doing more with less.

 

My wife and I lived on an acreage for a time. It was a wonderful place, except that it had no potable water so I had to drive into town and fill a tank at the public hydrant, drive it home and transfer it to a storage tank from which a pressure pump would send it to the house. Necessity made of us great conservers of water; we generally got by on 250 litres per day, so 125 litres each.

                Household water use has begun to decline slightly, but in 2009 in Canada, per person use was around 275 litres per day. We were using less than half the Canadian average.

                Household use can be shrunk without real hardship. Innovations like a sink that drains grey water into a toilet tank, taps that release water in bursts of a few seconds when handwashing, low-flow shower heads, in-line water heaters, turning lawns into xeriscape gardens, drip watering of gardens and orchards, etc., are not hard to come by, not expensive relative to the approaching alternatives.  

Although the abundance of fresh water in Canada provides little incentive to conserve, the supply is not endless: glaciers that feed our rivers are melting and will disappear, lakes and rivers are being contaminated through waste-water disposal, chemicals and organic material; ground water is compromised by agricultural chemicals and animal feces, diversion projects for hydro energy, etc. In effect, we’re in the business of turning fresh water into unpotable “sewage;” draining inevitably into the sea, which we’re also well on the way to destroying.

Before we can expect fresh water conservation and protection to become a serious issue, education will be increasingly important. But unless necessity energizes people, it’s doubtful that Western culture will do any better at this than we are currently doing at climate change, or adapting to the digital universe gracefully, or curbing the widening spread between the wealthy and the poor. Unless habits shift, the only alternative left will be water sales or water taxes, moves that hardly seem necessary in a progressive, well-educated society.

Plants and animals (including homo sapiens) have adapted to change and survived, but usually with massive attrition. The principle of natural selection—survival of the fittest, if you like—is the primary means by which species are able over time to adjust to changes in food and habitat conditions, but this is generally only possible when many generations are available for the adjustment. Human generations average out to 25 years or so, so 100 years gives us only 4 generations to adapt; fruit flies, on the other hand, would go through a minimum of 1,300 generations in that time. So in 100 years, fruit flies may well look different but they’ll be getting on just nicely while humans are still at early stages of adjusting to changes in their environment.

Humans, though, adapt through political means, not so much through the pure “survival of the fittest” paradigm, and so are reliant on thought and planning, social consensus and cooperation to make the adaptive changes that keep them fit to live in a changed environment. What this implies is the absolute need for a precise science: analysis, innovation, prediction, and the consensus to live by objectively-derived-at precepts.

But back to water. The right time for enacting strenuous fresh water conservation measures is long past. For Canadians to say there’s no need to conserve is to intone a survival of the fittest mode; a “let the poor freeze in the dark” attitude. “What’s it to me?” 

One reason it matters that we begin strategies of conservation of fresh water is that those in areas without water will pack up and move to wherever water is available. After climate change does its worst, every thirsty eye will focus on Canada and Russia particularly.  

Recommended reading: Postindustrial society | Britannica

 

LET’S TALK WATER -- #3    

So what’s the problem?

(Note: I need to tweak an earlier comment on water and its place in a closed system. Speculation in the scientific community now is that Mars, for instance, was once covered in water, some of which wandered off into space with the bulk being absorbed by the planet’s crust, a multi-billion-year process. If the earth’s water supply is losing molecules to space, that would suggest that the earth is on its way to becoming a barren, lifeless planet similar to Mars … perhaps in a billion or so years, so let’s not panic.)

T

he problem has nothing to do with an actual shortage of H₂O. The problem arises when it’s in a place that’s hard to access or in a condition of contamination that makes it unusable.

Much of the earth’s potable water is stored in underground caverns and sand beds and we access it with wells and pumps. Some of these underground “lakes” or aquifers have gathered over centuries, but as we pump the water out for agricultural purposes and for human consumption, they deplete faster than they can be replenished, so that many of the largest aquifers in places like Western Texas and Southern California, for example, now show alarmingly low water tables.

By far the largest storehouses of water are, of course, the oceans that cover about two-thirds of the earth’s surface. Unfortunately, this water has become heavily salinized through millenniums of salts being carried in by rivers that pick-up earth salts and deposit them there. Although the bulk of our ground water comes from ocean evaporation that rains down on us, evaporation/condensation has a distilling effect; the salts and other minerals remain behind, making ocean water unpalatable without desalinization.

The fresh water stored in solid form in the ice caps of the Arctic and Antarctic is also not a viable source for us either. With climate change, the potential for harvesting and utilizing this water is hardly a prospect worth considering as the Arctic storehouse, particularly, is melting into the oceans where its waters will join the unpotable mass.

Maps of Canada would seem to belie a shortage of water. Large and small freshwater lakes are abundant, but the unlikely prospect of moving water from Lac La Ronge, for instance, to the Salinas Valley in California renders much of our freshwater resource inaccessible for any practical purposes.

The abundance of water where we live makes even conservation seem ludicrous. Many a family in dry areas of Africa could get by for a day with just the water we release down the drain every day while waiting for it to run cold enough … or hot enough. Think about it: we flush our toilets with drinking water!

                But it’s a world problem, and so drought anywhere is our problem too; we’ve become a global village. Canadians during long, frozen winters depend on the orchards of Mexico and the Southern US having enough water so we can consume fruits and vegetables when we can’t practically grow them. Drought, when it becomes widespread and frequent, results in refugee movement and the suffering that migrants endure … and the accommodating adjustments they represent to receiving, "have" countries.

(On this WORLD WATER DAY, MARCH 22, I highly recommend a look at what we do worldwide to make even that fresh water we have unpalatable. See https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/un-world-water-day-photos-1.5956227)

                Look for the next installment where I’ll share some thoughts about the psychology and practicality of conservation.

 

LET’S TALK WATER -- #2

What is Water, Anyway?

As the earth formed, there was present an abundance of different atoms including hydrogen and oxygen gas. These two elements easily form a covalent molecule because the outer ring of the oxygen molecule has six electrons leaving room for two more.

 (Some caution is in order here; the illustration above shows a concept suggested by Niels Bohr, which is very useful because it helps us understand and predict chemical reactions among atoms. Physics has since determined that atoms/molecules are too complex in their behaviour to be rendered visually, one-dimensionally)

 Hydrogen being the simplest atom known has only one electron on its outer ring, so when molecules of hydrogen are in the vicinity of oxygen, the oxygen and hydrogen atoms are able to make a deal to share electrons, thereby creating a more stable molecule than each possess separately. 

Although hydrogen is by far the most abundant element in the universe, it exists mainly in molecular bonding with other elements, water being the main one here on earth. The covalent molecule of one oxygen and two hydrogen atoms is what we call “water.” We could call it “di-hydrogen oxide,” but to yell at the dinner table, “Please pass the Di-Hydrogen Oxide” would sound silly.

The earth, for all practical purposes, is a closed system; theoretically, its mass is only increased if it collides with another object in the solar system and its mass is reduced only if we shoot something out of the earth’s orbit. Water is subject to neither of these to any appreciable extent, so the total amount of water on earth remains relatively the same—again, for all practical purposes.

But the water cycle is an open system inside a closed system; energy is repeatedly absorbed and given up so that water evaporates into mist, condenses and falls again as water, a never-ending cycle.

When we talk water, we’re normally referring to liquid water.  The state of the water for washing and drinking—as opposed to fog, clouds and invisible vapour—is fluid (pardon the pun): water and water vapour molecules are in free vibration but when enough energy is removed by cooling, condensation produces liqued water. When molecular vibration in liquid water slows down due to further cooling, it turns to its solid state: ice. 

When water vapour is cooled to below zero degrees Celsius, molecules coalesce into snow crystals, their shape a product of the construction of the molecules themselves. It's still water, but called "snow."

We can separate the hydrogen from the oxygen of a water molecule by passing an electric current through it. That’s why the production of enough hydrogen to be used as a medium for driving cars and buses is best located near a hydro dam. In a hydrogen-driven car, the hydrogen molecules reunite with oxygen atoms to return it … you guessed it … to water. 

Tearing the water molecules apart through hydrolysis takes energy; in a car engine, this energy is returned as the hydrogen “burns,” or "oxidizes," and the resulting water drips from the exhaust pipe. 

(Note: If you have trouble believing this, go to Hydrolysis (eircom.net) and split some water molecules yourself.)

Far more interesting, probably, is how water changes states in the process of plant growth, how plants steal hydrogen from water to make the carbohydrates that provide their energy for growth and spit out excess oxygen during the day when photosynthesis is taking place. Also, how they steal Carbon dioxide from the air because carbon is the main ingredient in carbohydrates, thereby doing their part in saving the planet from climate change. But all that's another story. 

Look for the next episode: "So What's the Problem?"

 

 

LET’S TALK WATER -- #1

Why talk water?  

Because there are more and more places on earth where fresh water is in short supply. A solution in Great Britain during Margaret Thatcher’s time turned all waters over to corporations which priced it as you would oil. The thinking was that just like the Carbon Tax reduces fossil fuel consumption, water as a saleable commodity would cut waste and make desperately-needed upgrades that the government couldn't afford. This makes some sense, except that distributing water for profit introduces as many troublesome issues as it solves.

            In Australia, for instance, water is piped from the wetter north to the drier south and farmers and other enterprises that need water have to buy it. A megalitre (one-million litres) of water will cost you as much as $700.00. Also, a kind of “stock market” has arisen where people speculate on rising and falling prices and buy and sell paper units of water for profit.

            Canada presently has a surplus of fresh water and vegetable-growing California has been known to speculate on buying some of this surplus by, for instance, diverting some of the Fraser River water southward. There are, of course, corporations and investors who salivate at the thought of getting into a water market.

I suggest watching Lords of Water on the Knowledge Network (access on line at Knowledge.ca) and look for future posts in what I’m calling a Let’s Talk Water series.

 
#2 will be titled, What is Water, Actually?

June 2023

June, 2023

After the Pandemic

George G. Epp

January, 2021

 

INTRODUCTION

 

W

e’re currently in the second wave of what history may well record as “The Great 2020 Corona Pandemic.” The pandemic has taught us a lot about ourselves, for instance that not all challenges come riding on hurricanes, bombs, tanks, asteroids, floods, fires or other big things, and so automatic weapons, drones, space force, jet fighters are useless against them. What will defeat us as a human race will be a virus, sneaking up on us as a cell so small that it would have to link tentacles with 5,000 of its fellows to span your fingernail.

          A second thing we’ve learned to our astonishment is that lies can be just as influential to many members of the human species as are facts. Whether it’s a deep-seated death wish, sheer obstinacy or the backlash against authority, many humans will be persuaded by propaganda, conspiracy theories or the idolizing of a charismatic nay-sayer, enough to walk over a cliff like the fabled lemmings of the Arctic. 

The “if we work together, we can do anything” cliché seems right now to fail on the word together. It’s not illogical to say that we won’t agree on the what-to-do in the fight against, say, COVID-19, but to respond to a democratically-reached strategy by undermining it shows both a lack of foresight and an aggressive selfishness. What is new with this pandemic is that it encompasses the entire planet, the entire human race. Not even the “world” wars distributed pain so generally.

          What the pandemic ought to teach us as well, I think, is that our inability to fight back as a species must have grown out of the lives we were living in 2019 and before. To wish everything back to normal would most likely mean that any future, similar event would find us repeating the mistakes of this one. We really must put thought into alternatives that take into account preparedness for another health threat, decisive action against climate change and corrections to social and political institutions that will encourage solidarity across parties and opinions.[1] Most pressing is better education and training in community arts, the “how to resolve conflict and come to peaceful resolutions” skills.

          It’s not hard to demonstrate that in the last half of the 20^th Century and the first 5^th of the 21^st, we have continued to move away from self-care to canned and purchased care. For example, processed foods, delis and restaurants have freed us from a great deal of kitchen work. Homemade entertainment has—to a great extent—been swallowed up by television and the internet (for many children, I’m told, all that really gets regular exercise is the thumbs).

Our cars are vigilant for us, telling us when it’s safe to pass and when it isn’t—among all the other bells and whistles manufacturers are coming up with and that we find so attractive. Self-driving cars are in the experimentation stage, and voice activation built into all sorts of devices are advances that change life styles—in a negative direction as regards mental and physical health. For example, a culture that eats out all the time can’t be expected to possess nutrition and food preparation skills, is not as likely to be as concerned about food security as those who buy/raise food and prepare it for the table.

At the same time, a trend through the 20^th Century has been toward more individualistic, less community-oriented life styles. Some attribute this to enhanced mobility; I would add electronic connectivity, reliance on the internet and information overload. My daughter lives in Panama/Mexico; we have friends who live in Saskatchewan but have a daughter living in Newfoundland/Labrador and a son in Vancouver. This would have been a rare exception in the 1920s, but is not unusual in the 21^st Century. The distances, however, are made to seem less onerous by on-line messaging and the instantaneousness (is that a word?) connectivity and real-time virtual-face to virtual-face conversation.

In short, we’ve been working against both the concept of interdependent community and of the “Renaissance Man,” the person who is interested in many things, seeks knowledge about many things, strives to be able to do many things and thereby becomes familiar with, and more tolerant of, difference and change. Our technology has evolved apace; but human evolution toward an ever-higher plane[2] seems to be moving backwards toward the “dumpster man,” the one who has narrow interests, who scoffs at learning and whose skills are few and poorly developed. The phenomenon is demonstrated in the current “Trumpian Mob” mentality in the USA. Dumpster man sometimes becomes aware of his shortcomings as a person and since he’s unable to compete with educated and/or power structures, makes up for it with the conflation of truth and an imagined reality in which an invented world displaces the actual world. And in the invented world, he and those who agree with him are imaginary kings.

So, let’s assume that it’s June, 2023. Let’s imagine that an immunization program has finally brought the COVID 19 virus to heel in most of the world but that pockets of illness still persist where anti-vaxxers are numerous and in other countries with inadequate medical infrastructure and services. Lock-downs are no longer needed in Canada but masking, distancing protocols are applied occasionally as necessary and many people continue to mask when in public, closed areas, having become used to the practice and acutely aware that community spread can apply to even the common cold and ‘flu.

          At the same time, the climate change news is on a side burner, if not the front one for now, and more individual buy-in occurs because the long period of pandemic stay-at-home has subtly changed people’s expectations regarding travel, vacationing, shopping, institutions, consumption in general. Conservative governments are having to retool to regain a standing among what is now a majority that insists on climate-change action as priority number one. Progressive governments are having to scramble to find ways to re-invent social programs, economic policy, tax structures in the light of enormous debt and deficit burdens and the backlash from business and industry.

          In other words, “getting back to normal” is proving itself to be elusive because a “new normal” exists and going back isn’t a clear option.

          Just for fun, let’s imagine what the “new normal” might look like. These are informed guesses at best, and I’d appreciate comments. I may be wrong on every prediction . . . or I may be right. The point is that there is a future after COVID 19, and there are eventualities to be prepared for. So, the point is to be more prepared for the aftermath than we were for the pandemic. Think about it.

TRANSPORTATION:

T

he pandemic did a real number on travel generally. Closed borders and self-isolation—even after a simple interprovincial jaunt—decimated travel and vacation industries, all of which resulted in massive unemployment and loss of revenue. Seeing the skies and the highways open up is affecting people in different ways. Very many people lost their jobs, small business owners just gave up and by June, 2023 are so far in debt and with no savings remaining, that the booming job market will, for the time being, herald a chance to reacquire some of what was lost. For them, travel and vacations will have to wait.

          But now, ironically, the conditions that robbed some people of their livelihoods and their possessions are seeing the reverse effect among seniors and any others on pension incomes whose savings might well have grown during the stay-at-home period. Some airlines are hard-pressed to get enough planes in the air, to rehire staff enough to meet the pressing demand for winter getaways, family reunions and the simple urge to travel once again.  At the same time—and especially as long as pockets of infection remain—a lasting hesitancy lingers about places that are not home. Net effect? Some airlines are folding; others are prospering and when it all seems to have settled down, virtual meetings and visits remain the choice of many and many are saving all their rationed travel for family reunions.

          Highways are clogged with traffic as the economy heats up while the euphoria of being free to move about sets in. The fossil fuel industries are experiencing a surge as demand rises but then will likely fall back again as the economy settles down and the need to meet climate change targets reasserts.

Related to this, governments are forced to rethink public transportation. Proposals for a trans-Canada fast rail service and for commuter buses are beginning to appear. Electric cars are seen more often, but their high cost and persisting rumours of their dubious value in fighting climate change is restraining the speed of switching. Taxing the carbon footprint of everyone, of every business and institution is as commonplace as income tax used to be and rates are increasing as the necessity for meeting targets becomes more and more pressing. Gasoline is $2.25/litre at the pump and predictions are that it will rise by $.50/litre every year until it reaches ca. $5.00/litre. Filling the tank on an F-250 will set the owner back $300.00 if the prediction is true.

          On average, people’s circles of habitation and travel are shrinking. “Buy local” is becoming a more strident theme and the door is opening for entrepreneurs able to design services on a scale appropriate to local and rural communities. Carbon taxation is vastly increasing the cost of flying as well as driving; the incentive to travel to cities to shop is reduced and distance travel is most often by train or the electric busses that travel express city to city.  “Snowbird” winters are available only to the wealthiest. The sales of pickup trucks and luxury vehicles are plummeting and more and more people are finding ways to make do with one compact vehicle augmented by public transportation, bikes, electric golf carts, car-pooling and rentals.

People in rural areas are being forced to spend winter months (November to April, in many cases) near home; spas and planetariums heated by ambient sun, thermal energy and wind generators are being planned and will no doubt prove to be very popular. They will include masses of tropical- and temperate-climate plants as well as swimming/paddling pools. Families and individuals will be scheduled in for a day or more per week as it suits them and the facility’s capacity.

Ski trails and ski hills, tobogganing hills are popping up in numbers that will mean accessibility to nearly everyone; where usable hills don’t exist naturally, mounds are being planned and construction is being done. Covered ice surfaces, likewise, are planned to be accessible to nearly everyone and curling has experienced a resurgence. A few shorter surfaces and smaller rocks are expected to make the sport a hit with children.

Winters will eventually be very active, given the plans now being dreamed up and enacted.

 

COMMUNITY:

C

ommunity exists at many levels. Churches are communities as are schools, clubs, leagues, etc. Having been dormant for such a long time, such common-interest communities have restoration as their first order of business. They’re experiencing attrition as some members—having meanwhile adopted new habits and outlooks—simply aren’t coming back. Conversely, the ability to gather face to face is for others like a spring following a harsh winter, and new memberships are beginning to happen. Everyone wants to belong to something, it seems.

          Towns, villages, rural farming areas make up the bigger picture. People—by choice or necessity—are shrinking their circles, and the door is opening wider for innovative ways of servicing the community. Joint ownership, lending and borrowing, renting tools and equipment instead of buying is opening new avenues for profitable businesses and for savings for individuals.[3] We’re experiencing a renaissance of enterprise, ideas resulting in broader and better services in our communities. Inter-community cooperation is filling in the gaps; where one community lacks the population for, say, a medical clinic or a facility for career training, two or three together don’t. As these shifts are occurring, community awareness, pride and cooperation are increasing, the property tax base is growing, making community improvement possible.[4]

          Community choirs, clubs, drama groups and sports show promise of opening new opportunities for community members. In multi-ethnic centres, heightened community activity and opportunities are bringing about increased understanding and appreciation across cultures. Out-of-school activities for children and teens and opportunities for seniors are expanding as communities lean more and more on participation by all. Changes in education (see below) are driving much innovation out of sheer necessity.

          There will, of course, be detractors. Cries of “socialism, communism, the nanny-state, etc.” will be shrill and persistent. But to give everyone the range of options that pertained before 2019 has proven to be impossible. The principles of inter-dependent community is beginning to revert to a day when small towns had brass bands, when a few threshing machines and many local men harvested the community’s crops, when rural Co-ops drew local investment and both lowered prices for members and paid year-end dividends. Canadians will have to give up some of their autonomy to make the new normal work; that will be easier for some than for others.

          There’s talk about building in an opt in or opt out provision to some of the changes. This wouldn’t be new. For religious or ethical reasons, citizens in the two world wars were allowed a conscientious objector option, conservative religions have been allowed to opt out of Medicare and other government programs. It would be possible if this provision is enacted that municipal taxes would be broken down into categories so that access to ice skating facilities, for example, could be unchosen and the relevant tax foregone. Or federally, the Canada Pension Plan could be unchosen and private insurance purchased. The purpose of opt in/opt out would have to be limited, of course, since water and sewer, for instance, is a universal must have, as are many services. The option could, of course, be attractive to those pining for the individuality of the past.

          The world has become severely divided on the excuse of political leaning. What Canadian politics is searching for is a way to restore a sense of community that prevents the vitriol accompanying, for example, the split in the USA that’s led to violence and hatred across political lines.

 

EDUCATION:

I

n its struggle to maintain children’s educational progress over the past two years, our school system revealed much. Schools are not simply institutions of learning; they are also senior daycare centres. One of their essential tasks in our culture and economy has been demonstrated by the “to open schools, or not” discussions, making it apparent that schools are needed to free both parents to work and earn. For the teaching and practicing of new skills and understandings, the time spent in classrooms by our children is far greater than needed, but we’ve long accepted that between ages 6 and 16 at least, 200 days of 9:00 to 3:30 per year in a classroom is required to absorb a basic education. Meanwhile, schools can’t afford enough staff and space to keep class sizes down to optimal numbers.[5]

          There is probably no way of lowering class sizes without hiring more staff and adding infrastructure[GE1] . Meanwhile many school districts are running in the red. Some schools are going to a shift system: 12 Grade 5b class members in the morning, the other 13 in the afternoon. In order to accommodate the needs of a couple who both hold day jobs, current “work from home,” job sharing or part-time employment is becoming standard. Sports, art, music, have been removed from the school curriculum and are offered by community members with relevant skills, funded in part by user-pay and mainly by provincial governments.[6] High School students are attending as they did before, but the curriculum has been modernized to ensure that students’ leave with knowledge of their history, skills for participation in the new economy and with a toleration for diversity. Streaming follows Grade 12 as a compulsory 13^th year explores, through apprenticeship placements, where a student should pursue further education. Dropping out is not an option; education is free up to and including the first three years of post secondary.

Continuing education has been expanded; evening classes in the arts and hobbies as well as political and economic theory, ethics, health, homemaking arts and theology are available on a pay as you go basis. A portion of tuition is returned upon completing a course satisfactorily.[7]

 

POLITICS:

P

olitics in Canada has been stuck in an archaic rut for years now. There’s little to choose between Ottawa of the present and the British parliamentary system of several hundred years ago. First-past-the-post elections are like a built-in disincentive to the public to become involved, even to vote. The combative party politics on the hill is wasteful of talent and reinforces a divisiveness in the electorate. With 39% of the votes cast in their favour, a party can come to be 100% in charge; the remaining members form “the opposition,” a considerable body—generally—of talented people who have little to do beyond dredging up scandal on the government and planning how they might do better in the next election.

          Pressure for changes has come to enjoy broad support. Proportional representation is likely only one election away, the senate is being abolished as of January 1, 2025 and the chamber refitted to house a brand new “Nations’ Parliament,” a body with equal First Nations and non-First Nations representation whose sole task is to tend the treaty relationship and to formulate and present to the government proposals for their ratification.

          The Prime Minister is no longer automatically the leader of the majority party, although he/she might be. After elections, the parliament meets as a committee of the whole and for the first week, names persons to ministerial positions with each party contributing to cabinet as many as their share of the popular vote suggests, and the cabinet then meets to choose a Prime Minister, either from among them or from the legislature membership generally. Right now, the legislature is being reconfigured so seating is as circularly arranged as possible and members are seated by lot and not by party.

The speaker of parliament is appointed by the Governor-General out of the general population. 

          Governments serve for four years. The past convention of an election being triggered by a vote lost in parliament is abolished . . . because all parties are represented in cabinet and on the legislative floor, a failed bill is reworked or discarded since an arrival at consensus replaces the adversarial functioning of the past. All votes are free votes so on any given bill, a member of any party is free to support or oppose. Cabinet bills receive first priority, but MPs are able to introduce bills provided the request is signed by a given number of supporters.[8]

          Another political change is being heralded by the Well-being Economy movement. It was formed before the pandemic by Scotland, Iceland and New Zealand (all of whom had women as prime ministers) and had as a goal the displacement of Gross Domestic Product as the primary measure of the nations’ success with a well-being yardstick. In other words, governance goals are set with the health, living conditions and general well-being of the population as priority number one. Canada will be joining this network along with Australia and Ethiopia in the new year. As an example arising from this new emphasis, the Canadian government has adopted a policy that will tie the decline in the oil industry to start-up assistance in the manufacture and installation of renewable energy projects, thus ensuring steady employment for the populations of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Subsidies for oil exploration and development are being withdrawn gradually to avoid economic shock.

 

HOMES AND HOUSING:

M

iddle- and upper-class people in the West have more than one reason to buy a house. Along with the car(s) they drive, their houses serve to display their worth, their success, their tastes, their “style.” In houses, bigger sends a better signal than smaller and so as a general rule, persons/families occupy more house than they need. At the extreme, Jennifer Aniston owns a $20,000,000 home in Bel Air. It has 10,000 square feet of living space, 11 bathrooms and 7 bedrooms. [9] Meanwhile on the Shamattawa First Nation in Manitoba, all four bedrooms in a 1200 square-foot house are occupied and people are sleeping on the floors.[10] In the first example, 10,000 square feet per person; in the second, 109 square feet per person. The price of Aniston’s house could build 108 comfortable new homes in Shamattawa. The chief there says they need, but can’t get, 30.

Now (June, 2023) people are seeing the handwriting on the wall. Heating a large home is costing an average of $400-500 a month,[11] municipal taxes have gone up by a lot and the Federal Carbon Tax has tripled since it was legislated in 2018, and many have learned that when mortgage payments are added, they simply can’t afford a home that is either too big for them now, or will be when all the kids have left home. As a result, larger-house prices are tanking and there’s a shortage of condo and rental units.[12]

          The pandemic of 2020-22 warned us about the vulnerability of the elderly, particularly those in for-profit care homes. Meanwhile, fees are such that OAS plus the supplement has to be augmented by personal savings or a contribution from some family source. Seniors living with their children is becoming common; home care visits to assist with their care is available and the income from parents living-in is helping many to stay in their homes.

At the same time, some remodelling of homes is being done so children—even married ones with their own children—can live “at home” with husband’s or wife’s parents. People are looking to Europe, Asia and the Southern Americas for models of extended-family-home practices. Nursing homes for the severely compromised elderly still exist, of course, but they’re public facilities carry on as before, but more and more, are branches of existing hospitals.

 

CHURCH

T

he word church conjures up abundant images. A building is a church, the congregation that meets inside it is church, and then there’s the universal church founded when Jesus said of Peter that he was the rock on which Christ’s church would be built.[13] One way to find out if what you’re looking at is church is to ask participants if their group pays taxes; organized churches are exempt.

          Now (June, 2023), churches with substantial memberships are beginning to carry on as they did before the pandemic, although some things are new. Developments in the economy, particularly, have forced some of these changes while other changes emanate from people’s consciousness regarding the recent pandemic and the experiences it put them through. Shrinking of communities geographically has meant that churches are becoming less and less attached to conferences, more and more self administered and regulated. This has been disaster for small, old-line congregations and less so for those denominations that were locally administered before, like Anabaptist streams and independent “Gospel” churches. Fundamentalist congregations are doing some painful soul-searching regarding the events of the pandemic, trying to find consistency among their health fears, their relationship to government agencies and directives, and their reliance on God in times of stress. This is costing them some of the more disillusioned members.

          Since members in organized churches are getting by with less income, so giving has flagged. Many were struggling to survive before the pandemic, and they are now finding themselves unable to hire a full-time pastor, or any pastor at all for that matter. Those churches that have a motivated, committed membership are finding ways to continue the teaching, organizing, preaching, and serving functions through committees and lay ministry. Finding consistent lay-leadership is the key for many as no organization can survive if clear permission to lead is absent. Churches already in difficulty with low membership and minimum resources are closing, amalgamating or dispersing with many members joining larger congregations. A few members of demised churches have decided to form house churches.

          What has been sad and difficult for the many small denominational congregations has been rather a boost for ecumenism; the sense of the church universal has been awakened by the experience of a threat-to-life universal, and this consciousness has made it easier for Christians to seek community across traditional theological divides.

 

FOOD

T

he basics of food security were already in the Western vocabulary before the pandemic. Home gardening was on the increase, farmers’ markets were popular and the 100-mile diet was the extreme end of a push to support local food growing and processing.

          Now (June 2023) with the consolidation of stronger, more self-sufficient local communities, the trend mentioned above has sped up considerably. Lawns are being turned into vegetable patches, numerous families are building hen houses in their backyards, schools have gardens and food growing is part of the curriculum. Stores have found that to remain competitive, they have to have a section dedicated to locally grown, locally cooked and baked, locally preserved food. Some farms have diversified by adding acres to crops designated for the local market . . . wheat for local milling, more barley for more beer, lentils, soy beans and chick peas for protein substitutes, potatoes, corn, peas, destined for those augmenting their income by preserving and processing local food for the local market.

          Home industries are booming while at the same time, some are growing into small factories employing a few people: craft beer & Saskatoon wine, nutrition bars, potato chips, jams & jellies, meat products (after the models of Carmen Corner Meats and Pineview Farms), dried fruits, specialty cheeses, wood and fabric crafts, and . . . the list limited only by lack of imagination. Exotic foods, spices, wines and spirits, etc. are still imported but the pandemic interfered with supply lines and many items are only sporadically available. People are relearning the nutritional value in locally grown foods and the planting of Saskatoon berry trees, apple trees, plum trees, cherry trees is keeping plant and tree nurseries busy.

          Locally grown fruits including blackberries, blueberries, saskatoons, strawberries, raspberries, chokecherries, pin cherries, haskap berries, gooseberries, shrub and tree cherries and apples are beginning to replace imported fruit more and more as berry/cherry/apple plantations spring up.[14] Temperature and humidity-controlled facilities for storage are springing up as business enterprises on their own. Gradually, the trend toward big box stores and corporate food production sucking up local enterprise is being reversed and profits from food production are again recycling through local economies.[15]

          Feasts, dinners, evenings out at bars and restaurants are more popular than they ever were before the pandemic. The “town square” phenomenon—meeting places for hanging out with friends and strangers on summer evenings—has been a great outlet for people pinching pennies out of necessity. In cold climates, hockey arena and curling rink foyers and newly-constructed indoor games and fitness arenas are becoming “town squares” in winter. One thing the pandemic has taught us is that social gathering is good for human health and spirit. Food and drink will always be present wherever and whenever people gather.

 

MONEY

T

he love of money is at the root of what often turns into evil behaviour.” We’re familiar with that sentiment as well as, “Money can’t buy happiness,” and other maxims that decry a dependence on accumulating money. We mouth them, but don’t believe them. Even among Christians, I’d venture to say that many would sell Saint Paul if he’d bring them a price to make their dreams come true, so much so that we now have a prosperity gospel, a heresy that says money is a reward from God for the people he loves, a sentiment as contrary to what Jesus taught as can be imagined.

          Beginning after the turn of the century, the disappearance of paper money began and an accelerating decline was evident as Bitcoin was born. We were all used to money that wasn’t bills and coins, but notations in a bank or credit union. For many, though, money that couldn’t be hidden under mattresses or folded into a wallet was scary. Seniors refused direct deposit; they needed to hold a cheque in their hands, even though it then turned to a number in a bank or credit union and vanished when deposited. Long ago when food was primarily grown and raised locally and bartering eggs for milk, a side of beef for 50 hours of labour, people measured worth and exchange rates at a very practical level. The introduction of tokens to place-hold value when you “sold” milk but didn’t need eggs was symbolic of the birth of money.

          During the pandemic, very little physical token (bills and coins) changed hands; exchange of value for value was done by debit card, credit card, e-transfer, direct deposit and the odd cheque sent through the postal service. Physical exchanges, after all, gave opportunity for the virus to spread. Now (June, 2023) the exchange of physical money is almost unheard of; phones read debit cards and face-to-face transfers are expedited in seconds; new laws and better security on the internet have people beginning to have confidence in the system.

          Another thing the pandemic did was to illuminate the wide division between the rich and poor. After small, incremental changes to make sure everyone had means to feed and house themselves and their families, welfare programs of all kinds will soon be discarded to be replaced by a guaranteed annual income starting in 2025. There’s great resistance to this, of course, the standard objection being that it will eliminate the will to work for a living. A counter argument might be that adult’s main work is to raise good families, educated and knowledgeable children and that given the assurance of necessities provided, the increasingly self-contained communities will require a great deal of volunteerism. Furthermore, automation, artificial intelligence and robotics have so reduced the need for manual labour that the opportunity to earn a living with a job is not what it once was. For many, we’re finding, the need to be out and about, to be a contributor and, yes, to earn a living with a job is strong, the opportunity to live a lifestyle beyond that enabled by a GAI a real incentive.

          If, and how much, GAI an individual is entitled to is calculated like a reverse income tax. One year’s income tax report sets the amount for the next fiscal year; any overpayment or underpayment in one year is balanced out at next year’s tax calculation. OAS, CPP, Child benefits are all collapsed into the GAI program and much waste is cut out of the system because people with high incomes don’t need or receive any transfers from government.[16]

          The government had, of course, to come up with a reasonable budget given such a large shift in the way government services to individuals would be offered. Actuarial estimates, however, have indicated that the cost to government will not be much more than now. Visualized is a gain in better nutrition, better housing, better education and better communities with less addiction and less crime. That is, if the practices in education suggested above can actually become reality.

          Revising the tax system has been a real challenge. In broad strokes, wealth will be taxed far more realistically beginning in 2025. Middle classes will also find that their tax bill is considerably higher than before. Corporations will also pay a higher percentage of earnings into the countries general revenues. The big issue has been the argument that like the guaranteed annual income, the curbing of the opportunity to become wealthy, even super-wealthy, will act as a disincentive to entrepreneurship, innovation and research generally. A similar argument is also applied to corporate tax increases.

          Stock markets and the way stocks are traded will be regulated much more stringently. It’s now recognized that speculation as a way of earning a living creates a downside for the economy. Stocks purchased will not be allowed to be resold for a specified time still to be decided. Speculative trading on currencies is prohibited. The stock market currently operates like a casino; the only way the general public can participate in it is by bearing the fruits of events like the disaster of 2008, when minimal regulation allowed the real estate market along with cooperating banks and trust companies to collapse under the weight of over-extended futures trading and the speculative dealing in mortgages.

          Money is power. When money accumulates into the billions of dollars under the control of a corporation or individual, power to influence policy goes with it. A review of a book I have yet to read traces the growth of wealth, power and political influence in the Trump and Kushner clans[17]; the primary methodology behind their rises was engineered via political contributions and the concomitant stroking of the people in positions of influence.  

 

IMMIGRATION, REFUGEES, GLOBALIZATION

O

ne of the primary purposes of borders is the control of population, how many inhabit a political jurisdiction, and who, and under what conditions. The nation state is a relatively new phenomenon in the historical scope of things and the demarcation of borders developed, in part, from necessity because of ballooning populations and easier, faster mobility.

Prior to this development, empires rose and fell, of course. In practice, they sought to gain control over as many of the people and as much of the earth’s resources as possible. In effect, empires—like the Roman—militarily enslaved as much of the known world as possible. (Incidentally, our Bible is an excellent source for researching the conditions of life for the enslaved of empires, and for learning about the motivations and methods of those who enslaved.)

Later manifestations of empire arrived with the invention of sea-going ships. Beginning with the Portuguese and Spaniards, European countries competed to colonize as much of the “newly-discovered” world as possible.[18] Great Britain, as we know, excelled in this race and to this day we have the Commonwealth of Nations, a largely symbolic organization of former British colonies, Canada being but one.[19] Most of the nation states that were once part of the largest empire ever to exist are now independent.

So much for the historical sketch. Through racist attitudes and ethnic sensibilities, through religious and cultural animosities, through need for what Hitler called, “Lebensraum,” or living space, humanity has managed to live on the edge of inter-group and inter-personal tension that has regularly broken out in international or civil conflict. Add to this the 2020 pandemic and climate change that has caused and will continue to cause the turning of formerly-habitable areas into wastelands and we see what we see now in 2023, enormous pressure by groups—sometimes masses—of people seeking to find new homes in better places on the planet. Some come to our borders as refugees, some apply for permission to immigrate but in either case, the debate about how many, and who, is ongoing.

Now (June 2023), the numbers of people in United Nations refugee camps are in the tens of millions. Projections are that there will soon be more people languishing in such make-shift camps than there are people in Canada. Our government has raised the refugee admission numbers to 50,000 per year and many see only the dark side of that—too many seeking jobs in an already tight market, ghettos forming around ethnic groups’ attempts to recreate “home,” and, of course, the continuing effect of racism and the misconception that Canada is a white, Christian country and should remain so.

Meanwhile, Canada’s ability to provide food relief has been declining. Climate change has meant that a few pockets of arable land can be farmed now that couldn’t be before, but the reverse exceeds this benefit by far; the southern prairies are experiencing drought years, sometimes alternating with extremely wet years so that average grain output has declined. Agriculture is attempting to adjust by trying new, less-fragile crops but their efforts are hampered by the increasing “Buy America,” “Buy Canada” sensibility which has meant that input supplies and equipment are selling at ever-inflating prices.

Population control smacks of eugenics, dictatorial government. The subject is coming up more and more often. Among families whose history here goes back generations, the fertility rate falls well under 2, meaning that the average number of children each female bears is too few to maintain population numbers.[20] Many women bear no children, so those that do need to make up for this by having more than 2.

The new normal, then, has Western countries becoming increasingly more multi-cultural, multi-lingual, multi-religious, multi-ethnic. Much more attention is paid now to settlement in hopes of avoiding ghettos, but since Canada is a cold country, and since its citizens are able to move about freely, this is almost a lost cause. Helping newcomers acclimatize to life in Canada has become a profession. English classes, cultural classes, survival classes all need practitioners. The hope is, of course, that the “new normal” will actually be “normal.”

The most difficult hurdle now is the same one that made it difficult to beat the pandemic back, and that is the cohort that, for one reason or another, refuses to cooperate in the efforts to make the new normal, normal. Perhaps it’s simply an inability or an unwillingness to let go of what was but will never come again. With the most strident anti-progress people, sabotage and violence, the formation of rag-tag militias is a development that was boosted during the pandemic and the divisive presidency of Donald Trump, and remains extremely worrisome.

On the other hand, schools and community-organized, after-school activities are achieving exactly what is needed in some places, that being a well-planned program where children grow up more and more in multi-cultural environments. This has led to another occupation for citizens; one can choose to undergo training as a community facilitator in the area of children’s out-of-school education.

The end of rampant globalism has affected people’s attitudes toward foreign aid. As communities become more and more independent, the news of events abroad receives less and less attention, garners less and less interest. Charities are focused primarily on local needs; giving for international programs is drying up. The plight of refugees unable to find refuge goes largely unnoticed. Epidemics sweep through the crowded, unsanitary camps attempting to house and feed these many thousands, but they die un-mourned and unnoticed while the First World preoccupies itself with the safety of its own citizens.

 

HEALTHCARE

P

robably the most striking lessons learned in the school of the pandemic had to do with healthcare, its strengths and weaknesses. Notably the lack of preparedness is still in review and the conclusion has been that henceforth, Canada needs to have in storage enough personal protective equipment to cover even the unthinkable, worst case scenario. Hospital construction and expansion of current hospitals have become priorities. Besides increasing capacity, elective surgery, acute and intensive care are beginning to respond much more quickly and thoroughly to citizen’s needs. Many private nursing homes are being phased out or taken over by government and where necessary, wings or floors are being added to hospitals for those not able to cope with home and family care alone.

Registered Nursing training institutions have seen their quotas doubled and medical schools have increased intake by one-third.

          A new category focused on illness prevention has been added to both medical and nursing schools. Although protests of invasion of privacy—as expected—are expressed, homes with neonate, nursery school, middle school aged children are visited at home monthly or more for a safety, wellness and nutrition assessment, except where conditions make it obviously unnecessary. These community health workers have enough medical training to spot conditions that might result in hospital care or worse and are often the first responders to drug addiction, malnutrition, communicable disease and mental illness. They are able to prescribe from a list of basic drugs and therapies and work closely with school and playground personnel and any other institutions that share responsibility for children in need.  

          As a result of the increased manpower put into acute care staffing and facilities and the focus on prevention, visits to doctors have been lengthened without reducing remuneration. More detailed exploration of general health is required and improvements to ambience are being made to all facilities where illness is being assessed or treated. The focus has shifted so the doctor visit is unhurried, is made in a pleasant environment and lifestyle (nutrition, exercise, relationships, money matters, etc.) questions are addressed, again as a preventative strategy.

          Following a European model, health spas are located at Watrous and Moose Jaw in Saskatchewan and in appropriate places in other provinces. They are primarily mental health therapy sites and doctors prescribe days, weeks, or months of therapy where applicable. Physical therapies that are best conducted in water are also prescribed spa stays. Trained personnel are, of course, the backbone of the spas’ effectiveness.

          The World Health Organization and the United Nations have spearheaded an alert system that ensures the emergence of a new viral threat is made known world wide, and immediately. There has been great cooperation at the General Assembly of the UN and there are signs that this will become a health communication network useful in times of natural disasters as well.

 

WORK

G

et a job!” has long been shorthand for anyone relying on others’ resources to survive. It would be interesting, I think, to go back through history and pre-history to catalogue the ways in which individuals, families and communities obtained food for the table. My father had a job as a teacher after his post-secondary education but the pay was so low and the children arrived in such numbers that he had to augment his salary with some livestock. Later, we raised our own food in a garden and ate eggs, poultry and beef. Later, we expanded the dairy and purchased much of our food with proceeds from selling milk.

          I have always depended on a teacher’s salary and now a teacher’s pension, plus CCP and OAS to pay for food, housing, etc.

          Jobs for professionals and service industry workers are more plentiful now (June 2023) than they have ever been; automation, artificial intelligence and robotics, however, are decimating the blue collar and unskilled labour opportunities. As it has been since the Industrial Revolution, means of production are owned by individuals or groups of individuals—if they’re partnerships or public corporations. The object is the production of a product or service that will sell for more than the cost of making or delivering it. Labour is a cost, and automation allows enterprises to make more money, and that’s the bottom line and the reason for doing anything from milking cows to clerking in a store to manufacturing widgets.

          If you look back to the EDUCATION section, you’ll see that the growth in professional and service work vs labour means that more and broader education is required. There will be room, of course, for cleaners and garbage collectors and machine operators, but for the uneducated, unskilled person, the catalogue of options is shrinking.

 

ENTERTAINMENT

T

he permission to deliver and attend live performances has resulted in a sizeable increase in attendance at plays, concerts and movie theatres. In part, this is no doubt reactive to isolation during the pandemic. Amateur musicianship has also experienced a new dawning, probably for the same reason; community dances, seniors’ venues and fairs are again looking for affordable entertainment. Church choirs, school choirs, children’s choirs seem to have acquired a new polish and participation is encouraging.

          Now (June 2023) a thirst for live entertainment is general, perhaps because people are fed up with afternoons and evenings of Netflix and Acorn. And for those for whom shopping has always been a kind of entertainment, “shop ‘til you drop” seems to be a flavour of the day. Wardrobes need replenishing, furniture has worn out (especially seat cushions) houses are cleaned and polished and beauty in one’s surroundings for a change has boosted sales figures of big-box stores like Walmart and Costco enormously.

          Some people formed habits of family entertainment that seem to be lingering: family music, table games, puzzles, cross-country skiing, etc. and the hope is that it will persist; family solidarity and community consciousness can’t be bad for anyone. Moving music education out of the public school and into the community mornings or afternoons (depending on school schedule) is having the effect of greater community involvement and awareness when, for instance, seniors go to the park or to the recreation centre to hear a children’s choir practicing, or to watch soccer drills or a volleyball game.

 

THE INTERNET

T

he internet absorbed many an hour for many a stay-at-home person during the pandemic. On-line shopping boomed, giving a floundering Canada Post a second life—for the duration, at least. Internet providers also found the venue bursting with options and possibilities. Visual meeting options were improved and many learned to use them; new gaming choices popped up almost daily; streaming of everything from movies to church services provided means to communicate and be entertained from the recliner.

          The heavy demands on bandwidth challenged service providers to upgrade which in turn meant acquiring money for improvements; a lot of advertising had to be sold. Indeed, ads pervaded every platform from social networks to news to YouTube in order to keep the cost to the consumer competitively cheap.

          Now (June 2023) it’s become apparent that those who want complete deregulation of the internet have become a minority. Our government has legislated controls that tax internet providers heavily. Providers of social networks are required to apply strict censorship of libelous material. The manipulation of consumers by profiling them and targeting ads and news specifically to those profiles has been made illegal. The problems of spam and hacking have been largely solved with new software that provides universal detection of privacy invasion. The internet now has the primary goals of providing quality, searchable information and easy-to-use communication.

          The option of buying a service or being subjected to advertising is broadened now to include the entire internet. People pay roughly $120-$200 annually to opt out of all advertising. How much they pay depends on which apps they opt out of when registering. For instance, if you want access to only one or none of the social networking sites, your annual bill would decrease by, say, $3.00.

          To level the technical playing field a bit, Canada Post has developed a fast communication alternative to the physical letter specifically for those who lack computer skills or hardware. A handwritten or typed page or pages or pictures can be fed through a reader in the PO to be converted into PDF format and deposited on-line in the email inbox of the recipient. All that’s required is an email address and a few dollars for the service. Likewise, the response can be emailed to the post office who will print and place the paper copy in the originator’s physical mailbox. All that’s needed in this case is a box number and a postal code. A senior might well send an urgent question to a granddaughter in Singapore and wait in the post office for the reply.

          The above illustrates again that the pandemic made us aware of how we’ve neglected the needs of the elderly and the handicapped.

Those who lived through the pandemic with hope and in cooperation with the medical professions and government directives seem to have come out better people than before. Those who defied authority throughout have gone on to rail against other innovations. They share at least some of the responsibility for its having taken three years to beat back the virus to the point where our relationships, our economies could return to a semblance of normality.

IN CONCLUSION

T

he possibilities I’ve suggested come without any guarantees. In fact, they may not hit the mark on any eventuality whatsoever. What I hope they do is get us thinking about both shaping and fitting into the new reality. In that light, I challenge readers to respond to any of the suggestions with their take on what might more likely be the case.

          Meanwhile, I’ve compiled a list of things we could begin to plan for IF what I’ve predicted comes true:

·        Begin to downsize now or you may not be able to afford what you currently have in 2023. Things you possibly like but don’t need should be the first to go.

·        Educate yourself. Learn how economies work, how democratic governance works, how the medical profession functions. The internet judiciously used is all you need, but do consult reputable websites.

·        Make friends of schools. Join support groups, volunteer at special events like track meets. Give tutoring assistance. In general, become part of education as it will become the backbone of the social contract of the future.

·        Involve yourself in the community. Sit in on a council meeting and make representations to councils and governments on important issues.

·        Become more tech savvy. Take a course; practice and practice touch typing. Wean yourself of the endless parade of triviality urged upon us via the internet and begin to use it as a tool. For instance, Google something like humanism and learn what that movement is about.

·        Begin a routine exercise regimen; thousands are available online geared to different ages. Walk when practical, with a friend or on your own; the latter is a great activity allowing for simultaneous meditation.

·        Read more, both fiction and non-fiction. We’re finding that social media are damaging reading stamina. Typically, people scroll through entries, click “Like,” not in response to the content (of which they’ve probably only read the first line) but because it was posted by a friend.[21]

·        Moderate your activity on the internet. Dialogue easily slides into banter. Too much banter on a platform reduces the likelihood of its being used for serious discussion.

·        Whatever you repost is YOU. Keep it in mind.

·        Learn to play an instrument. Start with a recorder or a ukulele if this is new territory for you.

·        Break some old habits; the new normal may break them for you at a time when you’re less amenable to the challenge. (Cigarette and liquor taxes will triple or more: a pack of 20 cigarettes will cost $35.00 or more and a cheap bottle of wine about the same.)

·        Participate as you can in keeping your church family intact. Phone people, video-chat with others, go walking if you can with a friend(s), support your pastor and council and make sure you appreciate their work. Donate regularly and generously to your church’s budget.

·        Family, community and economic ties are going to be more and more important. Find ways to nourish all of these. Phone your j*****s brother in Timbuctoo for a change.

·        Get vaccinated! In the field of health, no advance has been as significant in saving lives and preventing debilitation and disfigurement than vaccines. In our time of pandemic, no procedure has a better hope of winning the war.

·        Attune yourself to nature by going out in it and becoming as informed as possible about the human relationship to plants and animals. Live green! (See Green Living | Green America on the web for a plethora of ideas.)

IF YOU’VE MADE IT THIS FAR, LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU ARE ANTICIPATING REGARDING “AFTER THE PANDEMIC” AND COMMUNICATE IT BY EMAIL AND I’LL POST IT ON FACEBOOK, WITH OR WITHOUT IDENTIFYING ITS SOURCE AS YOU WISH. TO DO SO, CLICK ON THE EMAIL ADDRESS BELOW:

gg.epp41@gmail.com

 

 

∞

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[1] In Canada, talk of replacing “first past the post” with “proportional representation” in electing our politicians has been discussed often but without any action taken. The USA lamented the glaring weakness in its electoral system just now, to the point where leaders feared for their democracy. Socially, the equal representation of women in business, the work force and politics needs to speed up. Just like a healthy legislature benefits from both conservative and liberal views, all our institutions need the influence of men and women as well as the non-cis population included in proportion to their numbers.

[2] There’s strong evidence that humans evolved down two branches with the Africa-originating homo sapiens moving northward and encountering there their cousin branch, the Neanderthals. Reasons for the extinction of the Neanderthal branch are speculated to have been a competition for space, or a dramatically sudden change in climate, but that’s speculative. Earth’s population in general has 1% to 2% residue of Neanderthal genes in its makeup, which indicates intermarriage and reminds me of the very odd references to the legends of the Nephilim in Genesis 6 and Numbers 13. See (Neanderthal - Wikipedia) for more.

[3] Part of the reason for individuals’ and family’s having to economize will result from the massive government debt accumulated before and during the pandemic and the need to repay it. As in Denmark, the population will get used to paying nearly half of their taxable income to federal, provincial and municipal governments. Education will be better, but will cost more. Medical care likewise in that preparedness for another epidemic or pandemic will require increasing supplies and staffing, increased post-secondary training spots for teachers, nurses and doctors.

[4] In fact, in an inter-dependent community, sweat equity can save a great deal of money.

[5] What the optimal number in a classroom is varies with the age, teachability of a given group. As a teacher of high school classes, I decided that 12 and a maximum of 15 would be workable for instruction could be individualized: I generally had 25+. I took my Physics 101 in a lecture theatre at the University of Saskatchewan with, probably, 60 or 70 other undergrads. With hyperactive (ADHD) or aggressive kids, one can be one too many some days.

[6] Example: Bill and Maggie have 2 boys, one in Grade 3 and one in Grade 6. Both boys are in school from 8:00 to 12:30. Maggie or Bill work from home during the same time or one of them finds part-time employment that can be done while the boys are in school. In the afternoon, the boys are at the community centre, one in hockey practice and the other in a band for a term. (Alternately, they might attend school from 1:00 to 4:30.)

[7] This is critical; in an age of rapid changes in democracies, news flashes and sound and picture bites are not enough to enable understanding of issues for one. Also, the openness to learning in the adult population helps to cement the value of education in children and youth.

[8] The question of whether a member of parliament represents his or her constituency or his or her party has always been. Most democracies have come to define their political agenda as tied to parties such that the absurd question, “are you voting for the person or the party?” is actually relevant. Most voters are not well-schooled on party policies but have an allegiance to one or the other party that might go back generations. Breaking this unbending allegiance to parties as opposed to policies and persons is one goal of governance reform.

[9] Jennifer Aniston House: Photos of her Custom Bel Air Mansion (velvetropes.com)

[10] Living with cockroaches a symptom of too few houses (aptnnews.ca)

[11] In 2017, the cost of heating for 24 units plus common areas in my condo building was $31.25/unit. Hydro in my unit averages $60.00/mo., the condo fee was $265.00 per month and municipal tax was $3,100 or $254/mo. (heating included in the condo fee). Occupancy cost in total, $579/month.

[12] It could be argued that upper- and upper-middle-class spending trickles down to provide employment and boosts the economy so everyone benefits. The “trickle down” effect has long been debunked; high earners and the wealthy have options for spending and much money goes overseas, is spent on elaborate vacations abroad, is hoarded (savings) and, in short, taken out of circulation in the domestic economy. Building for the poor also creates jobs, but every dollar earned by lower-middle and lower classes is of necessity spent back into the domestic economy.

[13] It’s doubtful that Jesus ever said this; in his time, “church” was not a concept and in any case, it’s hard to imagine that his intention at his leaving was to found what we now call “church.” Far more likely is the possibility that he hoped to see his followers take up the work of building a new synagogue, a new temple. Early Christianity before Paul’s and Peter’s missionary efforts reveals a movement more than a church.

[14] For the nutritional breakdown of several members of this group, please see 11 Reasons Why Berries Are Among the Healthiest Foods on Earth (healthline.com).

[15] This is not good news for the long-haul trucking, rail and sea shipping, but supports the reduction in fossil fuel pollution demanded by the general public. Fossil fuel producing provinces are late to the game, but are resigning themselves to diversification, much of it driven by communities in their jurisdiction.

[16] An example: a widow with small children files her income tax. It’s a new form with many questions about her housing, her health, the ages of her children, etc. Based on her filing, a formula grants her an income of a basic amount for each person in the household. There are numerous variations, but the goal with single parents is that they are able to parent full-time, as if that were their job, and that the standard of living for the family be similar to the average in the area. Down the street lives a man who owns a chain of car washes and shows on his return an income of $225,000. He is ineligible for any GAI, of course, and is expected to invest in a pension plan for his old age. After retirement, he will still file and if through circumstances, the self-administered pension plan is inadequate to his needs, he may become eligible for GAI to bring him up to the living standard of the average neighbour.

 

[17] In American Oligarchs, WNYC’s Andrea Bernstein details the power grabs of a new political dynasty. Read the review at American Oligarchs Kushner Trump Book Review - Bloomberg

[18] A source for understanding the mentality behind subjugation of people and the colonization of already occupied habitat can be found by reading about The Doctrine of Discovery, which gave “Christian” explorers (and Europeans of the 1400s would virtually all fall into this category) the right to claim ownership of any lands “discovered” if inhabitants were not themselves Christians (virtually all of peoples outside Europe and North Africa would be in this category). For more, see What is the Doctrine of Discovery? - Doctrine of Discovery.

[19] For further discussion of this, see British Empire - Wikipedia.

[20] Men don’t bear children, and since the numbers of men are roughly equal to the number of women, each woman has to give birth at least to one child to replace herself and another child to replace one man. To maintain the population numbers, then, the “fertility rate” needs to be at least 2. For a quick education on population and fertility rates, see Fertility Rate - Our World in Data.

[21] See Reading On The Internet Isn't Really Reading - So Write For The Internet | Exprance

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