 |
| Painting in Oils |
Among the numerous curiosities in
Canadian political dialogue these days, the “yes/no, maybe so”
about pipelines has to be one of the curiositists. An NDP government
in Alberta is working hard to swing public, government and corporate
opinion toward the economic efficacy of pipelines for bringing
Alberta crude to markets. The NDP government of BC knows that it’s
beholden to opponents of the Trans-Mountain pipeline for its slim
victory in the election there. The Conservative government of Stephen
Harper eulogized pipelines but couldn’t get them done. Trudeau’s
Liberals have approved the building of pipelines but there are
indications that they won’t be any more successful than the Harper government was.
It’s probably most relevant to say
that whether or not Keystone or Trans-Mountain or Energy East (or a
few other options not much talked about) are ever completed won’t
be determined in legislatures but in corporate board rooms.
Environmental concerns are generally little more than irritants when
profitability is being measured; it’s this measure that counts in
the end. Profit-seekers usually find a way wherever there’s a buck
to be made.
I’m told the price of oil is low
because there’s a glut of it on the market now. That’s Economics
101. What ought to be considered in all this babble about
Alberta’s—and by extension Canada’s—prosperity are the
trends and trajectories that will determine the future supply and
demand situation regarding fossil fuels. Every wind generator, every
hydro dam, every new solar panel, every efficiency built into
our cars reduces the demand for fossil fuel. Increasing populations,
burgeoning middle classes in developing countries pressure the demand
upward. Where do these trends cross on a graph? Is it possible that
at the same time as an expensive pipeline is completed, the sale of
what comes out of it will cease to be profitable?
We’ll probably never pump wheat, or
lumber, or people through redundant pipelines. What looks like a
surer investment for the future in this country is the modernization
of trains and the twinning of rail lines. Well-planned rail systems
can transport almost anything cheaply and cleanly—including oil
when necessary. Modern rail systems are comparatively economically
maintained, can take pressure and expense off road construction and
maintenance, reduce the traffic glut and smog in urban centres and
are ecologically friendlier than every other transportation mode
except, possibly, ocean freighters.
And rail has a romance to it; have you
ever heard of a hobbyist setting up a miniature landscape of
pipelines? Neither have I.
A broadly educated, reading, studying
population ought to realize that the pipeline topic is sucking up far
more oxygen than it deserves. The exciting challenges of the future neither revolve around whether or not Exxon or Shell remain
profitable, nor even around the jobs their activities create. We’re
in an era of massive adjustments and it’s in the informed search
for—and incorporation of—new technologies that a prosperous
future lies.
“Jobs, jobs, jobs” is a shibboleth politicians and
corporations throw at us all the time. The goal of every
corporation, ironically, is to reduce the employment of humans to as
close to zero as possible through their replacement by robotics,
mechanization, technology. How a living for citizens will be earned or supplied in
this kind of a future is a far bigger challenge than what's represented in this
tiresome pipeline quarreling.
I used to smoke a pipe. I gave it up.
A pipe tends to turn into a sewer unless you tend it like you would
your child. (This is irrelevant to the rest of this diatribe, except
for pipe, sewer and child.)
