June, 2023
After the Pandemic
George G. Epp
January, 2021
INTRODUCTION
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e’re currently in the second wave of what
history may well record as “The Great 2020 Corona Pandemic.” The pandemic has
taught us a lot about ourselves, for instance that not all challenges come
riding on hurricanes, bombs, tanks, asteroids, floods, fires or other big
things, and so automatic weapons, drones, space force, jet fighters are useless
against them. What will defeat us as a human race will be a virus, sneaking up
on us as a cell so small that it would have to link tentacles with 5,000 of its
fellows to span your fingernail.
A
second thing we’ve learned to our astonishment is that lies can be just as
influential to many members of the human species as are facts. Whether it’s a
deep-seated death wish, sheer obstinacy or the backlash against authority, many
humans will be persuaded by propaganda, conspiracy theories or the idolizing of
a charismatic nay-sayer, enough to walk over a cliff like the fabled lemmings
of the Arctic.
The “if we work together, we can do anything” cliché seems right now to
fail on the word together. It’s not illogical to say that we won’t agree
on the what-to-do in the fight against, say, COVID-19, but to respond to a
democratically-reached strategy by undermining it shows both a lack of foresight
and an aggressive selfishness. What is new with this pandemic is that it
encompasses the entire planet, the entire human race. Not even the “world” wars
distributed pain so generally.
What the pandemic ought to teach us as
well, I think, is that our inability to fight back as a species must have grown
out of the lives we were living in 2019 and before. To wish everything back to normal
would most likely mean that any future, similar event would find us repeating
the mistakes of this one. We really must put thought into alternatives that
take into account preparedness for another health threat, decisive action
against climate change and corrections to social and political institutions
that will encourage solidarity across parties and opinions.[1]
Most pressing is better education and training in community arts, the “how to
resolve conflict and come to peaceful resolutions” skills.
It’s not hard to demonstrate that in
the last half of the 20th Century and the first 5th of
the 21st, we have continued to move away from self-care to canned
and purchased care. For example, processed foods, delis and restaurants have
freed us from a great deal of kitchen work. Homemade entertainment has—to a
great extent—been swallowed up by television and the internet (for many
children, I’m told, all that really gets regular exercise is the thumbs).
Our cars are vigilant for us, telling us when it’s safe to pass and when
it isn’t—among all the other bells and whistles manufacturers are coming up
with and that we find so attractive. Self-driving cars are in the
experimentation stage, and voice activation built into all sorts of devices are
advances that change life styles—in a negative direction as regards mental and
physical health. For example, a culture that eats out all the time can’t be
expected to possess nutrition and food preparation skills, is not as likely to
be as concerned about food security as those who buy/raise food and prepare it
for the table.
At the same time, a trend through the 20th Century has been
toward more individualistic, less community-oriented life styles. Some
attribute this to enhanced mobility; I would add electronic connectivity,
reliance on the internet and information overload. My daughter lives in
Panama/Mexico; we have friends who live in Saskatchewan but have a daughter
living in Newfoundland/Labrador and a son in Vancouver. This would have been a
rare exception in the 1920s, but is not unusual in the 21st Century.
The distances, however, are made to seem less onerous by on-line messaging and
the instantaneousness (is that a word?) connectivity and real-time virtual-face
to virtual-face conversation.
In short, we’ve been working against both the concept of interdependent
community and of the “Renaissance Man,” the person who is interested in many
things, seeks knowledge about many things, strives to be able to do many things
and thereby becomes familiar with, and more tolerant of, difference and change.
Our technology has evolved apace; but human evolution toward an ever-higher
plane[2]
seems to be moving backwards toward the “dumpster man,” the one who has narrow
interests, who scoffs at learning and whose skills are few and poorly
developed. The phenomenon is demonstrated in the current “Trumpian Mob”
mentality in the USA. Dumpster man sometimes becomes aware of his shortcomings
as a person and since he’s unable to compete with educated and/or power
structures, makes up for it with the conflation of truth and an imagined
reality in which an invented world displaces the actual world. And in the
invented world, he and those who agree with him are imaginary kings.
So, let’s assume that it’s June, 2023. Let’s imagine that an
immunization program has finally brought the COVID 19 virus to heel in most of
the world but that pockets of illness still persist where anti-vaxxers are numerous
and in other countries with inadequate medical infrastructure and services.
Lock-downs are no longer needed in Canada but masking, distancing protocols are
applied occasionally as necessary and many people continue to mask when in
public, closed areas, having become used to the practice and acutely aware that
community spread can apply to even the common cold and ‘flu.
At the same time, the climate change
news is on a side burner, if not the front one for now, and more individual
buy-in occurs because the long period of pandemic stay-at-home has subtly
changed people’s expectations regarding travel, vacationing, shopping,
institutions, consumption in general. Conservative governments are having to
retool to regain a standing among what is now a majority that insists on
climate-change action as priority number one. Progressive governments are
having to scramble to find ways to re-invent social programs, economic policy,
tax structures in the light of enormous debt and deficit burdens and the
backlash from business and industry.
In other words, “getting back to normal”
is proving itself to be elusive because a “new normal” exists and going back
isn’t a clear option.
Just for fun, let’s imagine what the
“new normal” might look like. These are informed guesses at best, and I’d
appreciate comments. I may be wrong on every prediction . . . or I may be
right. The point is that there is a future after COVID 19, and there are
eventualities to be prepared for. So, the point is to be more prepared for the
aftermath than we were for the pandemic. Think about it.
TRANSPORTATION:
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he pandemic did a
real number on travel generally. Closed borders and self-isolation—even after a
simple interprovincial jaunt—decimated travel and vacation industries, all of
which resulted in massive unemployment and loss of revenue. Seeing the skies
and the highways open up is affecting people in different ways. Very many
people lost their jobs, small business owners just gave up and by June, 2023 are
so far in debt and with no savings remaining, that the booming job market will,
for the time being, herald a chance to reacquire some of what was lost. For
them, travel and vacations will have to wait.
But now, ironically, the conditions
that robbed some people of their livelihoods and their possessions are seeing
the reverse effect among seniors and any others on pension incomes whose
savings might well have grown during the stay-at-home period. Some airlines are
hard-pressed to get enough planes in the air, to rehire staff enough to meet
the pressing demand for winter getaways, family reunions and the simple urge to
travel once again. At the same time—and
especially as long as pockets of infection remain—a lasting hesitancy lingers
about places that are not home. Net effect? Some airlines are folding; others are
prospering and when it all seems to have settled down, virtual meetings and
visits remain the choice of many and many are saving all their rationed travel for
family reunions.
Highways are clogged with traffic as
the economy heats up while the euphoria of being free to move about sets in. The
fossil fuel industries are experiencing a surge as demand rises but then will likely
fall back again as the economy settles down and the need to meet climate change
targets reasserts.
Related to this, governments are forced to rethink public
transportation. Proposals for a trans-Canada fast rail service and for commuter
buses are beginning to appear. Electric cars are seen more often, but their
high cost and persisting rumours of their dubious value in fighting climate
change is restraining the speed of switching. Taxing the carbon footprint of everyone,
of every business and institution is as commonplace as income tax used to be and
rates are increasing as the necessity for meeting targets becomes more and more
pressing. Gasoline is $2.25/litre at the pump and predictions are that it will
rise by $.50/litre every year until it reaches ca. $5.00/litre. Filling the
tank on an F-250 will set the owner back $300.00 if the prediction is true.
On average, people’s circles of
habitation and travel are shrinking. “Buy local” is becoming a more strident
theme and the door is opening for entrepreneurs able to design services on a
scale appropriate to local and rural communities. Carbon taxation is vastly
increasing the cost of flying as well as driving; the incentive to travel to
cities to shop is reduced and distance travel is most often by train or the
electric busses that travel express city to city. “Snowbird” winters are available only to the
wealthiest. The sales of pickup trucks and luxury vehicles are plummeting and
more and more people are finding ways to make do with one compact vehicle
augmented by public transportation, bikes, electric golf carts, car-pooling and
rentals.
People in rural areas are being forced to spend winter months (November
to April, in many cases) near home; spas and planetariums heated by ambient
sun, thermal energy and wind generators are being planned and will no doubt
prove to be very popular. They will include masses of tropical- and temperate-climate
plants as well as swimming/paddling pools. Families and individuals will be
scheduled in for a day or more per week as it suits them and the facility’s
capacity.
Ski trails and ski hills, tobogganing hills are popping up in numbers
that will mean accessibility to nearly everyone; where usable hills don’t exist
naturally, mounds are being planned and construction is being done. Covered ice
surfaces, likewise, are planned to be accessible to nearly everyone and curling
has experienced a resurgence. A few shorter surfaces and smaller rocks are
expected to make the sport a hit with children.
Winters will eventually be very active, given the plans now being
dreamed up and enacted.
COMMUNITY:
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ommunity exists at
many levels. Churches are communities as are schools, clubs, leagues, etc.
Having been dormant for such a long time, such common-interest communities have
restoration as their first order of business. They’re experiencing attrition as
some members—having meanwhile adopted new habits and outlooks—simply aren’t coming
back. Conversely, the ability to gather face to face is for others like a
spring following a harsh winter, and new memberships are beginning to happen.
Everyone wants to belong to something, it seems.
Towns, villages, rural farming areas make
up the bigger picture. People—by choice or necessity—are shrinking their circles,
and the door is opening wider for innovative ways of servicing the community. Joint
ownership, lending and borrowing, renting tools and equipment instead of buying
is opening new avenues for profitable businesses and for savings for
individuals.[3]
We’re experiencing a renaissance of enterprise, ideas resulting in broader and
better services in our communities. Inter-community cooperation is filling in
the gaps; where one community lacks the population for, say, a medical clinic
or a facility for career training, two or three together don’t. As these shifts
are occurring, community awareness, pride and cooperation are increasing, the property
tax base is growing, making community improvement possible.[4]
Community choirs, clubs, drama groups
and sports show promise of opening new opportunities for community members. In
multi-ethnic centres, heightened community activity and opportunities are bringing
about increased understanding and appreciation across cultures. Out-of-school
activities for children and teens and opportunities for seniors are expanding
as communities lean more and more on participation by all. Changes in education
(see below) are driving much innovation out of sheer necessity.
There will, of course, be detractors.
Cries of “socialism, communism, the nanny-state, etc.” will be shrill and
persistent. But to give everyone the range of options that pertained before
2019 has proven to be impossible. The principles of inter-dependent community
is beginning to revert to a day when small towns had brass bands, when a few
threshing machines and many local men harvested the community’s crops, when
rural Co-ops drew local investment and both lowered prices for members and paid
year-end dividends. Canadians will have to give up some of their autonomy to
make the new normal work; that will be easier for some than for others.
There’s talk about building in an opt
in or opt out provision to some of the changes. This wouldn’t be new. For
religious or ethical reasons, citizens in the two world wars were allowed a
conscientious objector option, conservative religions have been allowed to opt
out of Medicare and other government programs. It would be possible if this
provision is enacted that municipal taxes would be broken down into categories
so that access to ice skating facilities, for example, could be unchosen and
the relevant tax foregone. Or federally, the Canada Pension Plan could be
unchosen and private insurance purchased. The purpose of opt in/opt out would
have to be limited, of course, since water and sewer, for instance, is a
universal must have, as are many services. The option could, of course, be
attractive to those pining for the individuality of the past.
The world has become severely divided
on the excuse of political leaning. What Canadian politics is searching for is
a way to restore a sense of community that prevents the vitriol accompanying,
for example, the split in the USA that’s led to violence and hatred across
political lines.
EDUCATION:
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n its struggle to
maintain children’s educational progress over the past two years, our school
system revealed much. Schools are not simply institutions of learning; they are
also senior daycare centres. One of their essential tasks in our culture and economy
has been demonstrated by the “to open schools, or not” discussions, making it
apparent that schools are needed to free both parents to work and earn. For the
teaching and practicing of new skills and understandings, the time spent in
classrooms by our children is far greater than needed, but we’ve long accepted
that between ages 6 and 16 at least, 200 days of 9:00 to 3:30 per year in a
classroom is required to absorb a basic education. Meanwhile, schools can’t
afford enough staff and space to keep class sizes down to optimal numbers.[5]
There is probably no way of lowering
class sizes without hiring more staff and adding infrastructure[GE1] . Meanwhile many school districts are running in the
red. Some schools are going to a shift system: 12 Grade 5b class members in the
morning, the other 13 in the afternoon. In order to accommodate the needs of a
couple who both hold day jobs, current “work from home,” job sharing or part-time
employment is becoming standard. Sports, art, music, have been removed from the
school curriculum and are offered by community members with relevant skills,
funded in part by user-pay and mainly by provincial governments.[6]
High School students are attending as they did before, but the curriculum has
been modernized to ensure that students’ leave with knowledge of their history,
skills for participation in the new economy and with a toleration for
diversity. Streaming follows Grade 12 as a compulsory 13th year
explores, through apprenticeship placements, where a student should pursue further
education. Dropping out is not an option; education is free up to and including
the first three years of post secondary.
Continuing education has been expanded; evening classes in the arts and
hobbies as well as political and economic theory, ethics, health, homemaking
arts and theology are available on a pay as you go basis. A portion of tuition
is returned upon completing a course satisfactorily.[7]
POLITICS:
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olitics in Canada
has been stuck in an archaic rut for years now. There’s little to choose
between Ottawa of the present and the British parliamentary system of several
hundred years ago. First-past-the-post elections are like a built-in
disincentive to the public to become involved, even to vote. The combative
party politics on the hill is wasteful of talent and reinforces a divisiveness
in the electorate. With 39% of the votes cast in their favour, a party can come
to be 100% in charge; the remaining members form “the opposition,” a
considerable body—generally—of talented people who have little to do beyond
dredging up scandal on the government and planning how they might do better in
the next election.
Pressure for changes has come to enjoy
broad support. Proportional representation is likely only one election away,
the senate is being abolished as of January 1, 2025 and the chamber refitted to
house a brand new “Nations’ Parliament,” a body with equal First Nations and
non-First Nations representation whose sole task is to tend the treaty
relationship and to formulate and present to the government proposals for their
ratification.
The Prime Minister is no longer automatically
the leader of the majority party, although he/she might be. After elections, the
parliament meets as a committee of the whole and for the first week, names
persons to ministerial positions with each party contributing to cabinet as
many as their share of the popular vote suggests, and the cabinet then meets to
choose a Prime Minister, either from among them or from the legislature
membership generally. Right now, the legislature is being reconfigured so
seating is as circularly arranged as possible and members are seated by lot and
not by party.
The speaker of parliament is appointed by the Governor-General out of
the general population.
Governments serve for four years. The
past convention of an election being triggered by a vote lost in parliament is
abolished . . . because all parties are represented in cabinet and on the
legislative floor, a failed bill is reworked or discarded since an arrival at
consensus replaces the adversarial functioning of the past. All votes are free
votes so on any given bill, a member of any party is free to support or oppose.
Cabinet bills receive first priority, but MPs are able to introduce bills
provided the request is signed by a given number of supporters.[8]
Another political change is being heralded
by the Well-being Economy movement. It was formed before the pandemic by
Scotland, Iceland and New Zealand (all of whom had women as prime ministers)
and had as a goal the displacement of Gross Domestic Product as the primary
measure of the nations’ success with a well-being yardstick. In other words,
governance goals are set with the health, living conditions and general
well-being of the population as priority number one. Canada will be joining
this network along with Australia and Ethiopia in the new year. As an example
arising from this new emphasis, the Canadian government has adopted a policy
that will tie the decline in the oil industry to start-up assistance in the
manufacture and installation of renewable energy projects, thus ensuring steady
employment for the populations of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and
Labrador. Subsidies for oil exploration and development are being withdrawn
gradually to avoid economic shock.
HOMES AND HOUSING:
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iddle- and
upper-class people in the West have more than one reason to buy a house. Along
with the car(s) they drive, their houses serve to display their worth, their
success, their tastes, their “style.” In houses, bigger sends a better signal
than smaller and so as a general rule, persons/families occupy more house than
they need. At the extreme, Jennifer Aniston owns a $20,000,000 home in Bel Air.
It has 10,000 square feet of living space, 11 bathrooms and 7 bedrooms. [9]
Meanwhile on the Shamattawa First Nation in Manitoba, all four bedrooms in a
1200 square-foot house are occupied and people are sleeping on the floors.[10]
In the first example, 10,000 square feet per person; in the second, 109 square
feet per person. The price of Aniston’s house could build 108 comfortable new
homes in Shamattawa. The chief there says they need, but can’t get, 30.
Now (June, 2023) people are seeing the handwriting on the wall. Heating
a large home is costing an average of $400-500 a month,[11]
municipal taxes have gone up by a lot and the Federal Carbon Tax has tripled
since it was legislated in 2018, and many have learned that when mortgage
payments are added, they simply can’t afford a home that is either too big for
them now, or will be when all the kids have left home. As a result, larger-house
prices are tanking and there’s a shortage of condo and rental units.[12]
The pandemic of 2020-22 warned us
about the vulnerability of the elderly, particularly those in for-profit care
homes. Meanwhile, fees are such that OAS plus the supplement has to be augmented
by personal savings or a contribution from some family source. Seniors living
with their children is becoming common; home care visits to assist with their
care is available and the income from parents living-in is helping many to stay
in their homes.
At the same time, some remodelling of homes is being done so
children—even married ones with their own children—can live “at home” with
husband’s or wife’s parents. People are looking to Europe, Asia and the
Southern Americas for models of extended-family-home practices. Nursing homes
for the severely compromised elderly still exist, of course, but they’re public
facilities carry on as before, but more and more, are branches of existing
hospitals.
CHURCH
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he word church
conjures up abundant images. A building is a church, the congregation
that meets inside it is church, and then there’s the universal church
founded when Jesus said of Peter that he was the rock on which Christ’s church
would be built.[13]
One way to find out if what you’re looking at is church is to ask
participants if their group pays taxes; organized churches are exempt.
Now (June, 2023), churches with
substantial memberships are beginning to carry on as they did before the
pandemic, although some things are new. Developments in the economy,
particularly, have forced some of these changes while other changes emanate
from people’s consciousness regarding the recent pandemic and the experiences
it put them through. Shrinking of communities geographically has meant that
churches are becoming less and less attached to conferences, more and more self
administered and regulated. This has been disaster for small, old-line
congregations and less so for those denominations that were locally
administered before, like Anabaptist streams and independent “Gospel” churches.
Fundamentalist congregations are doing some painful soul-searching regarding the
events of the pandemic, trying to find consistency among their health fears,
their relationship to government agencies and directives, and their reliance on
God in times of stress. This is costing them some of the more disillusioned
members.
Since members in organized churches
are getting by with less income, so giving has flagged. Many were struggling to
survive before the pandemic, and they are now finding themselves unable to hire
a full-time pastor, or any pastor at all for that matter. Those churches that
have a motivated, committed membership are finding ways to continue the
teaching, organizing, preaching, and serving functions through committees and
lay ministry. Finding consistent lay-leadership is the key for many as no
organization can survive if clear permission to lead is absent. Churches
already in difficulty with low membership and minimum resources are closing,
amalgamating or dispersing with many members joining larger congregations. A
few members of demised churches have decided to form house churches.
What has been sad and difficult for
the many small denominational congregations has been rather a boost for
ecumenism; the sense of the church universal has been awakened by the
experience of a threat-to-life universal, and this consciousness has
made it easier for Christians to seek community across traditional theological
divides.
FOOD
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he basics of food
security were already in the Western vocabulary before the pandemic. Home
gardening was on the increase, farmers’ markets were popular and the 100-mile
diet was the extreme end of a push to support local food growing and
processing.
Now (June 2023) with the consolidation
of stronger, more self-sufficient local communities, the trend mentioned above
has sped up considerably. Lawns are being turned into vegetable patches,
numerous families are building hen houses in their backyards, schools have
gardens and food growing is part of the curriculum. Stores have found that to
remain competitive, they have to have a section dedicated to locally grown, locally
cooked and baked, locally preserved food. Some farms have diversified by adding
acres to crops designated for the local market . . . wheat for local milling, more
barley for more beer, lentils, soy beans and chick peas for protein substitutes,
potatoes, corn, peas, destined for those augmenting their income by preserving
and processing local food for the local market.
Home industries are booming while at
the same time, some are growing into small factories employing a few people:
craft beer & Saskatoon wine, nutrition bars, potato chips, jams &
jellies, meat products (after the models of Carmen Corner Meats and Pineview
Farms), dried fruits, specialty cheeses, wood and fabric crafts, and . . . the
list limited only by lack of imagination. Exotic foods, spices, wines and
spirits, etc. are still imported but the pandemic interfered with supply lines
and many items are only sporadically available. People are relearning the
nutritional value in locally grown foods and the planting of Saskatoon berry
trees, apple trees, plum trees, cherry trees is keeping plant and tree
nurseries busy.
Locally grown fruits including
blackberries, blueberries, saskatoons, strawberries, raspberries,
chokecherries, pin cherries, haskap berries, gooseberries, shrub and tree
cherries and apples are beginning to replace imported fruit more and more as
berry/cherry/apple plantations spring up.[14]
Temperature and humidity-controlled facilities for storage are springing up as
business enterprises on their own. Gradually, the trend toward big box stores
and corporate food production sucking up local enterprise is being reversed and
profits from food production are again recycling through local economies.[15]
Feasts,
dinners, evenings out at bars and restaurants are more popular than they ever
were before the pandemic. The “town square” phenomenon—meeting places for
hanging out with friends and strangers on summer evenings—has been a great
outlet for people pinching pennies out of necessity. In cold climates, hockey
arena and curling rink foyers and newly-constructed indoor games and fitness
arenas are becoming “town squares” in winter. One thing the pandemic has taught
us is that social gathering is good for human health and spirit. Food and drink
will always be present wherever and whenever people gather.
MONEY
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he love of money is at the root of what often
turns into evil behaviour.” We’re familiar with that sentiment as well as,
“Money can’t buy happiness,” and other maxims that decry a dependence on
accumulating money. We mouth them, but don’t believe them. Even among
Christians, I’d venture to say that many would sell Saint Paul if he’d bring
them a price to make their dreams come true, so much so that we now have a prosperity
gospel, a heresy that says money is a reward from God for the people he
loves, a sentiment as contrary to what Jesus taught as can be imagined.
Beginning
after the turn of the century, the disappearance of paper money began and an accelerating
decline was evident as Bitcoin was born. We were all used to money that wasn’t
bills and coins, but notations in a bank or credit union. For many, though, money
that couldn’t be hidden under mattresses or folded into a wallet was scary.
Seniors refused direct deposit; they needed to hold a cheque in their hands,
even though it then turned to a number in a bank or credit union and vanished
when deposited. Long ago when food was primarily grown and raised locally and
bartering eggs for milk, a side of beef for 50 hours of labour, people measured
worth and exchange rates at a very practical level. The introduction of tokens
to place-hold value when you “sold” milk but didn’t need eggs was symbolic of the
birth of money.
During
the pandemic, very little physical token (bills and coins) changed hands;
exchange of value for value was done by debit card, credit card, e-transfer,
direct deposit and the odd cheque sent through the postal service. Physical
exchanges, after all, gave opportunity for the virus to spread. Now (June,
2023) the exchange of physical money is almost unheard of; phones read debit
cards and face-to-face transfers are expedited in seconds; new laws and better
security on the internet have people beginning to have confidence in the
system.
Another
thing the pandemic did was to illuminate the wide division between the rich and
poor. After small, incremental changes to make sure everyone had means to feed
and house themselves and their families, welfare programs of all kinds will soon
be discarded to be replaced by a guaranteed annual income starting in 2025.
There’s great resistance to this, of course, the standard objection being that
it will eliminate the will to work for a living. A counter argument might be
that adult’s main work is to raise good families, educated and knowledgeable
children and that given the assurance of necessities provided, the increasingly
self-contained communities will require a great deal of volunteerism.
Furthermore, automation, artificial intelligence and robotics have so reduced
the need for manual labour that the opportunity to earn a living with a job is
not what it once was. For many, we’re finding, the need to be out and about, to
be a contributor and, yes, to earn a living with a job is strong, the
opportunity to live a lifestyle beyond that enabled by a GAI a real incentive.
If,
and how much, GAI an individual is entitled to is calculated like a reverse
income tax. One year’s income tax report sets the amount for the next fiscal
year; any overpayment or underpayment in one year is balanced out at next
year’s tax calculation. OAS, CPP, Child benefits are all collapsed into the GAI
program and much waste is cut out of the system because people with high
incomes don’t need or receive any transfers from government.[16]
The
government had, of course, to come up with a reasonable budget given such a
large shift in the way government services to individuals would be offered.
Actuarial estimates, however, have indicated that the cost to government will
not be much more than now. Visualized is a gain in better nutrition, better
housing, better education and better communities with less addiction and less
crime. That is, if the practices in education suggested above can actually
become reality.
Revising
the tax system has been a real challenge. In broad strokes, wealth will be
taxed far more realistically beginning in 2025. Middle classes will also find
that their tax bill is considerably higher than before. Corporations will also
pay a higher percentage of earnings into the countries general revenues. The
big issue has been the argument that like the guaranteed annual income, the
curbing of the opportunity to become wealthy, even super-wealthy, will act as a
disincentive to entrepreneurship, innovation and research generally. A similar
argument is also applied to corporate tax increases.
Stock
markets and the way stocks are traded will be regulated much more stringently.
It’s now recognized that speculation as a way of earning a living creates a
downside for the economy. Stocks purchased will not be allowed to be resold for
a specified time still to be decided. Speculative trading on currencies is
prohibited. The stock market currently operates like a casino; the only way the
general public can participate in it is by bearing the fruits of events like
the disaster of 2008, when minimal regulation allowed the real estate market
along with cooperating banks and trust companies to collapse under the weight
of over-extended futures trading and the speculative dealing in mortgages.
Money
is power. When money accumulates into the billions of dollars under the control
of a corporation or individual, power to influence policy goes with it. A
review of a book I have yet to read traces the growth of wealth, power and
political influence in the Trump and Kushner clans[17];
the primary methodology behind their rises was engineered via political
contributions and the concomitant stroking of the people in positions of
influence.
IMMIGRATION,
REFUGEES, GLOBALIZATION
|
O |
ne of the primary purposes of borders is the control
of population, how many inhabit a political jurisdiction, and who, and under
what conditions. The nation state is a relatively new phenomenon in the
historical scope of things and the demarcation of borders developed, in part,
from necessity because of ballooning populations and easier, faster mobility.
Prior to this development,
empires rose and fell, of course. In practice, they sought to gain control over
as many of the people and as much of the earth’s resources as possible. In
effect, empires—like the Roman—militarily enslaved as much of the known world
as possible. (Incidentally, our Bible is an excellent source for researching
the conditions of life for the enslaved of empires, and for learning about the
motivations and methods of those who enslaved.)
Later manifestations of empire
arrived with the invention of sea-going ships. Beginning with the Portuguese
and Spaniards, European countries competed to colonize as much of the “newly-discovered”
world as possible.[18]
Great Britain, as we know, excelled in this race and to this day we have the Commonwealth
of Nations, a largely symbolic organization of former British colonies, Canada
being but one.[19] Most
of the nation states that were once part of the largest empire ever to exist
are now independent.
So much for the historical
sketch. Through racist attitudes and ethnic sensibilities, through religious
and cultural animosities, through need for what Hitler called, “Lebensraum,” or
living space, humanity has managed to live on the edge of inter-group and
inter-personal tension that has regularly broken out in international or civil
conflict. Add to this the 2020 pandemic and climate change that has caused and
will continue to cause the turning of formerly-habitable areas into wastelands
and we see what we see now in 2023, enormous pressure by groups—sometimes
masses—of people seeking to find new homes in better places on the planet. Some
come to our borders as refugees, some apply for permission to immigrate but in
either case, the debate about how many, and who, is ongoing.
Now (June 2023), the numbers
of people in United Nations refugee camps are in the tens of millions.
Projections are that there will soon be more people languishing in such
make-shift camps than there are people in Canada. Our government has raised the
refugee admission numbers to 50,000 per year and many see only the dark side of
that—too many seeking jobs in an already tight market, ghettos forming around
ethnic groups’ attempts to recreate “home,” and, of course, the continuing
effect of racism and the misconception that Canada is a white, Christian
country and should remain so.
Meanwhile, Canada’s ability to
provide food relief has been declining. Climate change has meant that a few
pockets of arable land can be farmed now that couldn’t be before, but the
reverse exceeds this benefit by far; the southern prairies are experiencing
drought years, sometimes alternating with extremely wet years so that average
grain output has declined. Agriculture is attempting to adjust by trying new,
less-fragile crops but their efforts are hampered by the increasing “Buy
America,” “Buy Canada” sensibility which has meant that input supplies and
equipment are selling at ever-inflating prices.
Population control smacks of
eugenics, dictatorial government. The subject is coming up more and more often.
Among families whose history here goes back generations, the fertility rate
falls well under 2, meaning that the average number of children each female bears
is too few to maintain population numbers.[20]
Many women bear no children, so those that do need to make up for this by
having more than 2.
The new normal, then, has
Western countries becoming increasingly more multi-cultural, multi-lingual,
multi-religious, multi-ethnic. Much more attention is paid now to settlement in
hopes of avoiding ghettos, but since Canada is a cold country, and since its
citizens are able to move about freely, this is almost a lost cause. Helping
newcomers acclimatize to life in Canada has become a profession. English
classes, cultural classes, survival classes all need practitioners. The hope
is, of course, that the “new normal” will actually be “normal.”
The most difficult hurdle now
is the same one that made it difficult to beat the pandemic back, and that is
the cohort that, for one reason or another, refuses to cooperate in the efforts
to make the new normal, normal. Perhaps it’s simply an inability or an
unwillingness to let go of what was but will never come again. With the most
strident anti-progress people, sabotage and violence, the formation of rag-tag
militias is a development that was boosted during the pandemic and the divisive
presidency of Donald Trump, and remains extremely worrisome.
On the other hand, schools and
community-organized, after-school activities are achieving exactly what is
needed in some places, that being a well-planned program where children grow up
more and more in multi-cultural environments. This has led to another
occupation for citizens; one can choose to undergo training as a community facilitator in the area of children’s out-of-school education.
The end of rampant globalism
has affected people’s attitudes toward foreign aid. As communities become more
and more independent, the news of events abroad receives less and less
attention, garners less and less interest. Charities are focused primarily on
local needs; giving for international programs is drying up. The plight of
refugees unable to find refuge goes largely unnoticed. Epidemics sweep through
the crowded, unsanitary camps attempting to house and feed these many
thousands, but they die un-mourned and unnoticed while the First World
preoccupies itself with the safety of its own citizens.
HEALTHCARE
|
P |
robably the most striking lessons learned in
the school of the pandemic had to do with healthcare, its strengths and
weaknesses. Notably the lack of preparedness is still in review and the
conclusion has been that henceforth, Canada needs to have in storage enough
personal protective equipment to cover even the unthinkable, worst case
scenario. Hospital construction and expansion of current hospitals have become
priorities. Besides increasing capacity, elective surgery, acute and intensive
care are beginning to respond much more quickly and thoroughly to citizen’s
needs. Many private nursing homes are being phased out or taken over by
government and where necessary, wings or floors are being added to hospitals
for those not able to cope with home and family care alone.
Registered Nursing training
institutions have seen their quotas doubled and medical schools have increased
intake by one-third.
A
new category focused on illness prevention has been added to both medical and
nursing schools. Although protests of invasion of privacy—as expected—are
expressed, homes with neonate, nursery school, middle school aged children are
visited at home monthly or more for a safety, wellness and nutrition
assessment, except where conditions make it obviously unnecessary. These community
health workers have enough medical training to spot conditions that might
result in hospital care or worse and are often the first responders to drug
addiction, malnutrition, communicable disease and mental illness. They are able
to prescribe from a list of basic drugs and therapies and work closely with
school and playground personnel and any other institutions that share
responsibility for children in need.
As
a result of the increased manpower put into acute care staffing and facilities
and the focus on prevention, visits to doctors have been lengthened without
reducing remuneration. More detailed exploration of general health is required
and improvements to ambience are being made to all facilities where illness is
being assessed or treated. The focus has shifted so the doctor visit is
unhurried, is made in a pleasant environment and lifestyle (nutrition,
exercise, relationships, money matters, etc.) questions are addressed, again as
a preventative strategy.
Following
a European model, health spas are located at Watrous and Moose Jaw in
Saskatchewan and in appropriate places in other provinces. They are primarily
mental health therapy sites and doctors prescribe days, weeks, or months of
therapy where applicable. Physical therapies that are best conducted in water
are also prescribed spa stays. Trained personnel are, of course, the backbone
of the spas’ effectiveness.
The
World Health Organization and the United Nations have spearheaded an alert
system that ensures the emergence of a new viral threat is made known world
wide, and immediately. There has been great cooperation at the General Assembly
of the UN and there are signs that this will become a health communication
network useful in times of natural disasters as well.
WORK
|
G |
et a job!” has long been shorthand for anyone
relying on others’ resources to survive. It would be interesting, I think, to
go back through history and pre-history to catalogue the ways in which
individuals, families and communities obtained food for the table. My father
had a job as a teacher after his post-secondary education but the pay was so
low and the children arrived in such numbers that he had to augment his salary
with some livestock. Later, we raised our own food in a garden and ate eggs,
poultry and beef. Later, we expanded the dairy and purchased much of our food
with proceeds from selling milk.
I
have always depended on a teacher’s salary and now a teacher’s pension, plus
CCP and OAS to pay for food, housing, etc.
Jobs
for professionals and service industry workers are more plentiful now (June
2023) than they have ever been; automation, artificial intelligence and
robotics, however, are decimating the blue collar and unskilled labour
opportunities. As it has been since the Industrial Revolution, means of
production are owned by individuals or groups of individuals—if they’re
partnerships or public corporations. The object is the production of a product
or service that will sell for more than the cost of making or delivering it.
Labour is a cost, and automation allows enterprises to make more money, and
that’s the bottom line and the reason for doing anything from milking cows to
clerking in a store to manufacturing widgets.
If
you look back to the EDUCATION section, you’ll see that the growth in
professional and service work vs labour means that more and broader education
is required. There will be room, of course, for cleaners and garbage collectors
and machine operators, but for the uneducated, unskilled person, the catalogue
of options is shrinking.
ENTERTAINMENT
|
T |
he permission to deliver and attend live
performances has resulted in a sizeable increase in attendance at plays,
concerts and movie theatres. In part, this is no doubt reactive to isolation
during the pandemic. Amateur musicianship has also experienced a new dawning,
probably for the same reason; community dances, seniors’ venues and fairs are
again looking for affordable entertainment. Church choirs, school choirs,
children’s choirs seem to have acquired a new polish and participation is
encouraging.
Now
(June 2023) a thirst for live entertainment is general, perhaps because people
are fed up with afternoons and evenings of Netflix and Acorn. And for those for
whom shopping has always been a kind of entertainment, “shop ‘til you drop”
seems to be a flavour of the day. Wardrobes need replenishing, furniture has
worn out (especially seat cushions) houses are cleaned and polished and beauty
in one’s surroundings for a change has boosted sales figures of big-box stores
like Walmart and Costco enormously.
Some
people formed habits of family entertainment that seem to be lingering: family
music, table games, puzzles, cross-country skiing, etc. and the hope is that it
will persist; family solidarity and community consciousness can’t be bad for
anyone. Moving music education out of the public school and into the community
mornings or afternoons (depending on school schedule) is having the effect of
greater community involvement and awareness when, for instance, seniors go to
the park or to the recreation centre to hear a children’s choir practicing, or
to watch soccer drills or a volleyball game.
THE INTERNET
|
T |
he internet absorbed many an hour for many a
stay-at-home person during the pandemic. On-line shopping boomed, giving a
floundering Canada Post a second life—for the duration, at least. Internet
providers also found the venue bursting with options and possibilities. Visual
meeting options were improved and many learned to use them; new gaming choices
popped up almost daily; streaming of everything from movies to church services
provided means to communicate and be entertained from the recliner.
The
heavy demands on bandwidth challenged service providers to upgrade which in
turn meant acquiring money for improvements; a lot of advertising had to be
sold. Indeed, ads pervaded every platform from social networks to news to
YouTube in order to keep the cost to the consumer competitively cheap.
Now
(June 2023) it’s become apparent that those who want complete deregulation of
the internet have become a minority. Our government has legislated controls
that tax internet providers heavily. Providers of social networks are required to
apply strict censorship of libelous material. The manipulation of consumers by
profiling them and targeting ads and news specifically to those profiles has
been made illegal. The problems of spam and hacking have been largely solved
with new software that provides universal detection of privacy invasion. The
internet now has the primary goals of providing quality, searchable information
and easy-to-use communication.
The
option of buying a service or being subjected to advertising is broadened now
to include the entire internet. People pay roughly $120-$200 annually to opt
out of all advertising. How much they pay depends on which apps they opt out of
when registering. For instance, if you want access to only one or none of the
social networking sites, your annual bill would decrease by, say, $3.00.
To
level the technical playing field a bit, Canada Post has developed a fast
communication alternative to the physical letter specifically for those who
lack computer skills or hardware. A handwritten or typed page or pages or
pictures can be fed through a reader in the PO to be converted into PDF format
and deposited on-line in the email inbox of the recipient. All that’s required
is an email address and a few dollars for the service. Likewise, the response
can be emailed to the post office who will print and place the paper copy in
the originator’s physical mailbox. All that’s needed in this case is a box
number and a postal code. A senior might well send an urgent question to a granddaughter
in Singapore and wait in the post office for the reply.
The
above illustrates again that the pandemic made us aware of how we’ve neglected
the needs of the elderly and the handicapped.
Those who lived through the
pandemic with hope and in cooperation with the medical professions and
government directives seem to have come out better people than before. Those
who defied authority throughout have gone on to rail against other innovations.
They share at least some of the responsibility for its having taken three years
to beat back the virus to the point where our relationships, our economies could
return to a semblance of normality.
IN CONCLUSION
|
T |
he possibilities I’ve suggested come without
any guarantees. In fact, they may not hit the mark on any eventuality
whatsoever. What I hope they do is get us thinking about both shaping and fitting
into the new reality. In that light, I challenge readers to respond to any of
the suggestions with their take on what might more likely be the case.
Meanwhile,
I’ve compiled a list of things we could begin to plan for IF what I’ve
predicted comes true:
·
Begin to downsize now or you may not be able to afford
what you currently have in 2023. Things you possibly like but don’t need should
be the first to go.
·
Educate yourself. Learn how economies work, how
democratic governance works, how the medical profession functions. The internet
judiciously used is all you need, but do consult reputable websites.
·
Make friends of schools. Join support groups, volunteer
at special events like track meets. Give tutoring assistance. In general,
become part of education as it will become the backbone of the social contract
of the future.
·
Involve yourself in the community. Sit in on a council
meeting and make representations to councils and governments on important
issues.
·
Become more tech savvy. Take a course; practice and
practice touch typing. Wean yourself of the endless parade of triviality urged
upon us via the internet and begin to use it as a tool. For instance, Google
something like humanism and learn what that movement is about.
·
Begin a routine exercise regimen; thousands are
available online geared to different ages. Walk when practical, with a friend
or on your own; the latter is a great activity allowing for simultaneous
meditation.
·
Read more, both fiction and non-fiction. We’re finding
that social media are damaging reading stamina. Typically, people scroll
through entries, click “Like,” not in response to the content (of which they’ve
probably only read the first line) but because it was posted by a friend.[21]
·
Moderate your activity on the internet. Dialogue
easily slides into banter. Too much banter on a platform reduces the likelihood
of its being used for serious discussion.
·
Whatever you repost is YOU. Keep it in mind.
·
Learn to play an instrument. Start with a recorder or
a ukulele if this is new territory for you.
·
Break some old habits; the new normal may break them
for you at a time when you’re less amenable to the challenge. (Cigarette and
liquor taxes will triple or more: a pack of 20 cigarettes will cost $35.00 or
more and a cheap bottle of wine about the same.)
·
Participate as you can in keeping your church family
intact. Phone people, video-chat with others, go walking if you can with a
friend(s), support your pastor and council and make sure you appreciate their
work. Donate regularly and generously to your church’s budget.
·
Family, community and economic ties are going to be
more and more important. Find ways to nourish all of these. Phone your j*****s
brother in Timbuctoo for a change.
·
Get vaccinated! In the field of health, no advance has
been as significant in saving lives and preventing debilitation and
disfigurement than vaccines. In our time of pandemic, no procedure has a better
hope of winning the war.
·
Attune yourself to nature by going out in it and
becoming as informed as possible about the human relationship to plants and
animals. Live green! (See Green
Living | Green America on the web for a plethora of ideas.)
IF YOU’VE MADE IT THIS FAR, LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU
ARE ANTICIPATING REGARDING “AFTER THE PANDEMIC” AND COMMUNICATE IT BY EMAIL AND
I’LL POST IT ON FACEBOOK, WITH OR WITHOUT IDENTIFYING ITS SOURCE AS YOU WISH.
TO DO SO, CLICK ON THE EMAIL ADDRESS BELOW:
gg.epp41@gmail.com
∞
[1] In Canada, talk of replacing “first
past the post” with “proportional representation” in electing our politicians
has been discussed often but without any action taken. The USA lamented the
glaring weakness in its electoral system just now, to the point where leaders
feared for their democracy. Socially, the equal representation of women in
business, the work force and politics needs to speed up. Just like a healthy
legislature benefits from both conservative and liberal views, all our
institutions need the influence of men and women as well as the non-cis
population included in proportion to their numbers.
[2]
There’s strong evidence that humans evolved down two branches with the
Africa-originating homo sapiens moving northward and encountering there their
cousin branch, the Neanderthals. Reasons for the extinction of the Neanderthal
branch are speculated to have been a competition for space, or a dramatically
sudden change in climate, but that’s speculative. Earth’s population in general
has 1% to 2% residue of Neanderthal genes in its makeup, which indicates
intermarriage and reminds me of the very odd references to the legends of the
Nephilim in Genesis 6 and Numbers 13. See (Neanderthal - Wikipedia)
for more.
[3] Part of the reason for individuals’
and family’s having to economize will result from the massive government debt
accumulated before and during the pandemic and the need to repay it. As in
Denmark, the population will get used to paying nearly half of their taxable
income to federal, provincial and municipal governments. Education will be better,
but will cost more. Medical care likewise in that preparedness for another
epidemic or pandemic will require increasing supplies and staffing, increased
post-secondary training spots for teachers, nurses and doctors.
[4] In
fact, in an inter-dependent community, sweat equity can save a great deal of
money.
[5] What the optimal number in a
classroom is varies with the age, teachability of a given group. As a teacher
of high school classes, I decided that 12 and a maximum of 15 would be workable
for instruction could be individualized: I generally had 25+. I took my Physics
101 in a lecture theatre at the University of Saskatchewan with, probably, 60
or 70 other undergrads. With hyperactive (ADHD) or aggressive kids, one
can be one too many some days.
[6]
Example: Bill and Maggie have
2 boys, one in Grade 3 and one in Grade 6. Both boys are in school from 8:00 to
12:30. Maggie or Bill work from home during the same time or one of them finds
part-time employment that can be done while the boys are in school. In the
afternoon, the boys are at the community centre, one in hockey practice and the
other in a band for a term. (Alternately, they might attend school from 1:00 to
4:30.)
[7] This is critical; in an age of rapid
changes in democracies, news flashes and sound and picture bites are not enough
to enable understanding of issues for one. Also, the openness to learning in
the adult population helps to cement the value of education in children and
youth.
[8] The question of whether a member of
parliament represents his or her constituency or his or her party has always
been. Most democracies have come to define their political agenda as tied to
parties such that the absurd question, “are you voting for the person or the
party?” is actually relevant. Most voters are not well-schooled on party
policies but have an allegiance to one or the other party that might go back
generations. Breaking this unbending allegiance to parties as opposed to
policies and persons is one goal of governance reform.
[11]
In 2017, the cost of heating for 24 units plus common areas in my condo
building was $31.25/unit. Hydro in my unit averages $60.00/mo., the condo fee
was $265.00 per month and municipal tax was $3,100 or $254/mo. (heating
included in the condo fee). Occupancy cost in total, $579/month.
[12]
It could be argued that upper- and upper-middle-class spending trickles down to
provide employment and boosts
the economy so everyone benefits. The “trickle down” effect has long been
debunked; high earners and the wealthy have options for spending and much money
goes overseas, is spent on elaborate vacations abroad, is hoarded (savings)
and, in short, taken out of circulation in the domestic economy. Building for
the poor also creates jobs, but every dollar earned by lower-middle and lower
classes is of necessity spent back into the domestic economy.
[13] It’s doubtful that Jesus ever said
this; in his time, “church” was not a concept and in any case, it’s hard to
imagine that his intention at his leaving was to found what we now call
“church.” Far more likely is the possibility that he hoped to see his followers
take up the work of building a new synagogue, a new temple. Early Christianity
before Paul’s and Peter’s missionary efforts reveals a movement more
than a church.
[14] For the nutritional breakdown of
several members of this group, please see 11
Reasons Why Berries Are Among the Healthiest Foods on Earth (healthline.com).
[15] This is not good news for the
long-haul trucking, rail and sea shipping, but supports the reduction in fossil
fuel pollution demanded by the general public. Fossil fuel producing provinces
are late to the game, but are resigning themselves to diversification, much of
it driven by communities in their jurisdiction.
[16] An example: a widow with small
children files her income tax. It’s a new form with many questions about her
housing, her health, the ages of her children, etc. Based on her filing, a
formula grants her an income of a basic amount for each person in the
household. There are numerous variations, but the goal with single parents is
that they are able to parent full-time, as if that were their job, and that the
standard of living for the family be similar to the average in the area. Down
the street lives a man who owns a chain of car washes and shows on his return
an income of $225,000. He is ineligible for any GAI, of course, and is expected
to invest in a pension plan for his old age. After retirement, he will still
file and if through circumstances, the self-administered pension plan is
inadequate to his needs, he may become eligible for GAI to bring him up to the
living standard of the average neighbour.
[17] In American
Oligarchs, WNYC’s Andrea Bernstein details the power grabs
of a new political dynasty. Read the review at American
Oligarchs Kushner Trump Book Review - Bloomberg
[18] A source for understanding the
mentality behind subjugation of people and the colonization of already occupied
habitat can be found by reading about The Doctrine of Discovery, which
gave “Christian” explorers (and Europeans of the 1400s would virtually all fall
into this category) the right to claim ownership of any lands “discovered” if
inhabitants were not themselves Christians (virtually all of peoples outside
Europe and North Africa would be in this category). For more, see What
is the Doctrine of Discovery? - Doctrine of Discovery.
[19] For further discussion of this, see British Empire - Wikipedia.
[20]
Men don’t bear children, and since the numbers of men are roughly equal to the
number of women, each woman has to give birth at least to one child to replace
herself and another child to replace one man. To maintain the population
numbers, then, the “fertility rate” needs to be at least 2. For a quick
education on population and fertility rates, see Fertility
Rate - Our World in Data.
